Analysis : Russia continues to grow arms export in the Middle East TASS 11210161

Military Defense Industry Technology - Russia
 
Analysis : Russia continues to grow arms export in the Middle East.
The Soviet Union ranked second after the United States in terms of arms export for many years. Russia picked up the baton from it a quarter of the century ago. Its annual income from arms trade in 2012-2015 is estimated on average at $14.5 billion. The past decade’s feature is a considerable growth of the Russian arms sales in the Middle East. It is designed to serve the strategic objective of Moscow’s policies in the oil-rich, albeit hot, spot of the planet - to become a key player in the region, the Expert weekly notes.
     
The Soviet Union ranked second after the United States in terms of arms export for many years. Russia picked up the baton from it a quarter of the century ago. Its annual income from arms trade in 2012-2015 is estimated on average at $14.5 billion. Algeria  is one of the biggest buyer of Russian military equipment as the BTR-70 8x8 APC which is in service with the Algerian armed forces.
     
In the opinion of Chatham House expert Nikolai Kozhanov, referred to by the China Daily, Russia has been extremely careful with using arms export as a means to political ends until recently. The situation has changed, however. Russia’s quickly rising importance on the Middle East arms market has added to its resolve and confidence.

Instability in the region is a reason enough to believe the Middle East will remain a major arms market in the near future. Certainly, Russia is no new kid on the block as far as the Middle East arms market is concerned, Kozhanov notes. The Soviet Union supplied arms to Algeria, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Sudan and Yemen. However, its dissolution led to a sharp decline in the arms export of its successor, Russia. The latter’s defense industry was bled white by the privatization pulled off when Boris Yeltsin was president. To boot, a number of important defense industry players were inherited by the independent states that used to make up the Soviet Union. The loss of such important sea ports as Odessa and Ilyichovsk dealt an especially strong blow.

Russia’s positions on the Middle East arms market shrunk much. The toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and Muammar Qaddafi in 2011 deprived the country of long-time important customers. The regime change in Libya alone robbed Russia of $6.5 billion in arms export revenues, according to Rosoboronexport analysts. Although Russia succeeded in retaining Syria and Algeria as its customers, the overall sales were not impressive. At the same time, several Russian attempts at penetrating the Persian Gulf arms market failed. Western arms exporter managed to thwart the onslaught of their Russian rivals.

According to Kozhanov, the turning point was the war in Syria. The Russian arms exporters have gotten their second wind, because their weapons have proven themselves in combat, rather than at testing grounds alone. The developments in Syria have drawn attention of all Middle East states to our weaponry, including the Persian Gulf monarchies, traditional customers for Western military hardware.

For instance, Bahrain ordered a large batch of Kalashnikov AK-103 assault rifles in 2011 and, three years later, became the first regional state to buy Kornet (NATO reporting name: AT-14 Spriggan) antitank guided missile systems from Moscow. The value of the deals was not big, but they helped Russia to get its foot in the Persian Gulf arms market’s door.
     
The Soviet Union ranked second after the United States in terms of arms export for many years. Russia picked up the baton from it a quarter of the century ago. Its annual income from arms trade in 2012-2015 is estimated on average at $14.5 billion. Russia has recently delivered S-300 air defense missile systems to Iran.
     
The volume of the contracts placed by Middle East countries with Russian weapons exporters had spiked from 2011 to 2014. At the same time, Kozhanov notes, Russia got back to Egypt’s and Iraq’s arms markets dominated by US firms. Two years ago, Russia and Egypt clinched a deal on the Mikoyan MiG-29M2 (Fulcrum) fighters, Mil Mi-35M (Hind) attack helicopters, S-300 (SA-10 Grumble) surface-to-air missile systems and Bastion (SS-C-5 stooge) coastal defense missile systems to the tune of $3.5 billion.

In May, Turkish newspaper BirGun reported that Morocco, Algeria and Tunisia were going to switch over to Russian-made arms. For instance, Algeria has plans to buy Sukhoi Su-32 (Fullback) tactical bombers (export version of the Su-34), Ilyushin Il-76MD-90A (Candid) airlifters and Mil Mi-28 (Havoc) attack helicopters.

The Chatham House experts emphasizes that Russian companies were selling their weapons to regional states at will while their US counterparts suspended their sales to Bahrain, say, in 2011 so that the Bahraini government could not use the imported combat gear to suppress the opposition’s protests during the Arab Spring. The arms sales to Egypt were terminated in 2013-2014 in the same vein to exert pressure on its government.

The very cautions and slow deliveries of US-made armament to Iraq at the time the latter badly needed military equipment to repel the offensive of the Russia-banned Islamic State terrorist group showed the Middle East countries that Washington’s hegemony in this sphere had ended.

Of course, Moscow’s interest in arms export is not only of economic nature, Kozhanov emphasizes. Russia is trying successfully enough to use its arms exports as a tool to tip the balance of power in the region. It tried to do it before too. For instance, the decision not to deliver the S-300 SAM systems to Syria in 2012 allowed an improvement in its relations with Israel, while the S-300 delivery to Iran this year has heavily facilitated the dialog between Moscow and Iran.

The size of the Middle East slice of the Russian arms exports is unknown. Estimates vary widely - from 8.2% to 37.5% ($1.1 billion to $5.5 billion). In spite of its obvious recent success, Russia’s positions on the Middle East arms market cannot be called unshakeable yet. The problems encountered by Russia’s military industry and the global economic crisis have affected them.

Another thing making arms trade lucrative in political terms is that the latter ties the buyers to the seller in the long term, because the imported hardware has to be maintained, upgraded, provided with spares, etc. This means that Russia has returned to the Middle East and is highly unlikely to be ousted from there in the near future, the expert weekly says, referring to the China Daily.
     
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