Strategic deterrence

According to the Long Term Defence Plan, published on 17 June 2016, Norway’s deterrence relies on the ability to give time to allied forces to be deployed in the country before a crisis escalates into an imminent confrontation. That would either deter the opponent(s) not to further escalate into an armed confrontation or in case that deterrence fails, the Norwegian Armed Forces (NAF) would be ready to carry out operations seamlessly and inflict heavy loses to the opponent(s).

Therefore, the Armed Forces’ key efforts are to facilitate allied presence; to promote interoperability and training with allied forces. However, the Norwegian MoD presumes that the basis for a credible deterrence is the country’s ability to respond to a crisis or carry out operations by itself, before any allied forces arrive into the country.

Security concerns

LTDP 2016 regards European cohesion and, global and regional power shifts, as the main security considerations that should be met with increased and better cooperation among the European and NATO states.

Russia does not constitute a military threat to Norway, according to the Defence Plan. However, Moscow’s growing military capabilities, resort to the use of force; strengthening of its nuclear capabilities; destabilization of Eastern Ukraine; its power projection and willingness to exert influence are central factors in the country’s defence planning.

Under these circumstances, although High North is an area where there is still international cooperation, no one can rule out the possibility that Russia could resort to military force in case of a given situation.

Other security concerns include the political instability in the MENA region and Sahel, terrorism and the proliferation of weapons and technologies.

            Strategic priorities

To address these issues, the Norwegian MoD has set four priorities. These are:

1. Strengthening the country’s national defence by

• Maintaining situational awareness and crisis management capability;
• Improving readiness, combat power and survivability;
• Improving the ability to receive allied reinforcements and
• Increasing allied military presence with frequent exercises.

2. Strengthening NATO’s collective defence.

3. Contributing to international crisis management.

4. Enhance cooperation between military and civilian organizations under the Total Defence concept.

           Procurement plans

Norway’s procurement plans will focus on providing to the Armed Forces equipment that will allow them to carry out operations in the whole spectrum of conflict.

In addition some of the procurement plans will provide strategic capabilities, that will allow the NAF to identify and track targets from a distance, destroy them if necessary and at the same moment survive in an advanced countermeasures environment. An example of such equipment is the JSF F-35 Lightning II.

To implement the necessary procurement plans the government recommended additional funding of NOK165 billion (EUR17.5 billion) over the next 20 years.

The first phase of the procurement plan, up to 2020, will address the deficiencies in spare parts, maintenance and ammunition, which have accumulated over the past years. From 2021 until 2026 the funds will mainly focus on new investment programmes.

Along with the commissioning of new systems and platforms, the Norwegian Armed Forces will implement a reorganization plan that will result in a force structure with higher readiness and availability.

For that reason, the Norwegian Government plans to commission a Land Power Study “to provide a more in depth review of the future mission, concept and structure of Norwegian ground forces”. According to LTDP 2017-2020 “the study will review future land warfare concepts, potential force structures, equipment, basing structure and training levels.”

Except for the changes in the naval and air forces, the ground forces will go through some restructuring. That would include the disbandment of the Coastal Ranger Command, with some of its personnel being reallocated within the Army and the Navy. The Army will have a new unit, in the form of a Ranger Company, of about 200 people, which will reinforce the Army Border Guard.

            Personnel

The restructuring plans will also bring changes to the Armed Forces training and composition. In the future, commissioned officers will comprise of 30% of the total force and the rest of the ranks will be the remaining 70%.

Personnel will be reduced but without affecting the services’ combat capabilities, as the reductions will mainly come from administrative roles.

Moreover, the Norwegian Armed Forces will create one educational system for both higher military academic and military vocation education. One Armed Forces College will be created and the current six colleges and officers training institutions will merge into one organization structure.

Finally, in an effort to reduce costs, the Armed Forces education will focus on joint initiatives and will give priority “to training and education that cannot be sourced elsewhere and will avoid duplication of functions between the different services and the civil education system.”