Analysis : French Mirage in Ukraine A game changer for the ongoing war ?.

Announced on 6 June 2024 on the sidelines of the D-Day celebrations, France will deliver Mirage 2000-5 jets to Ukraine by the end of 2024. No official announcement has been made regarding the number of aircraft, but several scenarios are possible. But is the integration and use of the Mirage 2000 a challenge that, if overcome, would be a real game changer?
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Mirage 2000-5 deployed in East Africa, French air base in Djibouti   (Picture source: French MoD)

We know that Greece, which is equipped with Mirage 2000-5BG (Greek version), wants to part with 5 aircraft to increase its Rafale fleet, built by the French company Dassault.
However, the French President has declared that France will give "the equivalent of what other countries are giving".

This would imply the delivery of about ten Mirage jets, but these planes seem to come necessarily from the French fleet. Only the 1/2 Cigognes squadron, based at Luxeuil-Saint Sauveur Air Base 116, is in a position to provide them, with a dozen or so aircraft. This squadron has begun the transition to the Rafale, which requires new hangars and new ground infrastructure (taxiways, runway). It is therefore possible that this squadron will be phased out sooner than expected in anticipation of the arrival of the Rafale in 2026. However, the Mirage 2000 has undergone numerous evolutions, even in terms of capabilities. What about the Mirage 2000-5 promised to Ukraine?

French Air force mirage 2000-5 with MICA missile under each wing   (Picture source: French MoD)

Mirage 2000-5 an interceptor designed against Russian threats 

The Mirage 2000-5, still an operational aircraft, has limited technical information available. However, in its version 5, the Mirage 2000 is primarily dedicated to air combat. As an excellent interceptor, the Mirage 2000-5 can reach a speed of Mach 2.2 at an altitude of 15,000 meters and is equipped with the formidable Fox 3-type MICA missile. It is equipped with an RDY radar, capable of detecting more than 16 aircraft simultaneously and tracking up to 6, allowing the Mirage 2000-5 to engage as many targets at once.

The MICA missile that equips the Mirage 2000-5 today is a Fox-3 missile with infrared guidance, making it autonomous in the attack phase. Developed to strike beyond visual range, the missile has significant autonomy. The aircraft-missile link allows for designating a sector where the enemy aircraft is present, and once fired, the missile autonomously homes in on the target using IR guidance, making it a fire-and-forget missile.

The Russian Federation is well acquainted with the Mirage 2000-5, having encountered it during Baltic Air Policing missions. Each time, it was the French fighters that prevailed, making it a formidable opponent for Russian aircraft that Ukraine is preparing to receive.

Integration of the Mirage 2000-5 into Ukrainian Forces

The manner in which the aircraft integrates into the operations and logistics of the Ukrainian air force also remains to be seen. Integrating a new type requires meticulous planning and coordination as several challenges need to be addressed.

Pilots and maintenance crews must undergo extensive training to familiarize themselves with the systems, avionics, weapons, sensors, and procedures of the new aircraft. This training can be time-consuming and costly, requiring adjustments to existing training programs or the development of new ones. Given that some of the training for a group of Ukrainian pilots is already taking place in France, this issue might be mitigated. Nonetheless, it will take time before the pilots can fully exploit the Mirage 2000-5.

Since the Mirage 2000-5 has previously faced Russian aircraft during Baltic Air missions, it is expected that the aircraft will be a tough adversary in experienced hands. Thus, in the initial phase of its operational use, it will be difficult to assess, due to the lack of pilot experience. Moreover, this will be the first time this interceptor is engaged in a high-intensity war where it will face a large number of 4th generation aircraft. Consequently, the Russians will need to utilize their new aircraft, which are operational in very small numbers today. The SU-57, a 5th generation aircraft announced, might be a potential challenger to the Mirage 2000-5, particularly due to its stealth capabilities and high maneuverability.