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Focus: China’s Strategic Blueprint to Become World’s Leading Naval Power by 2050.
In 2024, China is strengthening its maritime strategy by ramping up efforts to modernize and expand its navy, a key component of its global power ambitions. With a defense budget of $225 billion, of which 25% to 30% is allocated to the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), Beijing is clearly positioning itself to rival major naval powers. This expansion has allowed China to operate a fleet of 340 ships, surpassing the U.S. Navy, which has 290 vessels. China’s ambitions do not stop there, as it plans to increase this number to over 400 ships by 2030, further cementing its role in both Asian and global geopolitics.
In late October 2024, the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy conducted its first dual-aircraft-carrier formation exercise with the Liaoning and Shandong in the South China Sea (Picture source: China Military)
One of the cornerstones of this strategy is the development of modern destroyers such as the Type 055, a 13,000-ton multi-role warship capable of missions ranging from anti-air to anti-submarine warfare. Eight units of this type are already operational, with a ninth under construction. Concurrently, China is expanding its power projection capabilities with advanced amphibious ships like the Type 075 helicopter carriers, exemplified by the Hainan. These vessels enhance China's ability to operate far beyond its immediate borders, particularly in strategic areas such as the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia.
Aircraft carriers also play a central role in this buildup. After refurbishing the Liaoning, a former Soviet vessel, China commissioned the Shandong in 2019 and is conducting trials on the Fujian, its first carrier equipped with electromagnetic catapults. By 2030, the PLAN is expected to field five aircraft carriers, bolstering its power projection capabilities despite the conventional propulsion systems limiting these vessels’ range. Complementing these efforts is China’s submarine fleet, which comprises approximately 70 vessels. The nuclear-powered Jin-class submarines, armed with JL-2 ballistic missiles, provide Beijing with a sea-based nuclear strike capability, solidifying its position as a global military power.
This naval expansion is accompanied by growing territorial tensions in the South and East China Seas. China claims nearly 90% of the South China Sea, a strategic region through which about one-third of global trade passes. These claims conflict with those of neighboring countries such as Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, leading to disputes that threaten regional stability. Beijing has strengthened its position by constructing military bases on artificial islands and increasing naval patrols, raising concerns among the U.S. and its allies. Similarly, the issue of Taiwan, which China considers a breakaway province, exacerbates tensions. The island has become a major flashpoint, with frequent incursions by Chinese naval and air forces into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone.
China’s strategy extends beyond its immediate waters. Beijing aims to secure its trade routes and energy supplies through the “String of Pearls” strategy, which involves establishing a network of naval bases and logistical hubs in locations such as Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Djibouti, and potentially other countries in Africa and the Persian Gulf. This initiative has drawn scrutiny from Western powers, as it demonstrates China’s ability to operate far beyond the Asia-Pacific region.
In response, the United States and its allies are closely monitoring China’s developments. While the U.S. Navy is numerically smaller, it maintains a technological and operational edge with 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers and a more advanced submarine fleet, particularly the Ohio-class. However, U.S. military officials have expressed concerns about China’s rapid modernization, identifying 2027 as a potentially critical year for confrontation, especially over Taiwan.
Several factors could hinder China’s ambition to become the world’s leading naval power by 2050. Economic constraints, such as slower growth or financial crises, could limit the resources available for naval modernization. Dependence on critical technology imports could also face challenges from international sanctions or restrictions. Additionally, regional and international tensions, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea, could lead to premature conflicts that drain China’s military resources. The PLAN’s limited operational experience compared to the U.S. Navy and its restricted overseas base network pose significant logistical challenges. Finally, an international coalition involving powers like the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia could effectively counter China’s naval expansion.
China’s naval buildup reflects a clear ambition to reshape the global naval order. While the country faces challenges such as limited operational experience and a lack of overseas bases, it is progressing rapidly. With substantial investments and a determined strategy, China is poised to significantly influence the geopolitical landscape in the decades to come.