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War in Ukraine and American Uncertainty: Europe Faces Test of Its Strategic Autonomy.
As the war in Ukraine continues, the role of the United States in European security has become more uncertain than ever. Since the 2022 invasion, Washington has been a key supporter of Kyiv, but Donald Trump's statements on a swift resolution to the conflict and his open hostility toward NATO have raised serious concerns among European leaders. The possibility of a partial or complete withdrawal of U.S. support for Ukraine and European defense is forcing a comprehensive reassessment of military and industrial strategies, testing the continent’s ability to ensure its own security.
The United Kingdom and France, possessing the most capable armed forces on the continent and the only European nuclear deterrents, are at the forefront of efforts to establish a credible alternative (Picture source: French MoD)
The situation in Ukraine remains defined by a costly war of attrition. Three years after the conflict began, Kyiv continues to hold its ground but at the cost of large-scale mobilization and the gradual depletion of its resources. Despite significant losses and increasing economic isolation, Russia has managed to adapt its military apparatus, relying on a battle-hardened army and an industrial base increasingly oriented toward war production. The largely static front lines do not imply a stalemate, as each advance, deep strike, or shift in mobilization strategy affects the course of the conflict. Ukraine faces persistent challenges, including chronic ammunition shortages, mounting difficulties in recruitment, and concerns that Western support could diminish under the weight of shifting political priorities in both the U.S. and Europe.
In this context, the evolution of the U.S. position is a determining factor. Trump has stated his intent to end the conflict quickly, without specifying the terms. His advisors have suggested a ceasefire agreement that could involve territorial concessions by Kyiv, an option firmly rejected by the Ukrainian government and several European states. Adding to this uncertainty are U.S. restrictions on the use of certain Western-supplied weapons and delays in the delivery of strategic equipment such as long-range missiles. These factors have heightened skepticism in Kyiv and among its European allies regarding Washington’s reliability as a partner.
Given this situation, European strategic autonomy is no longer just an option but an urgent necessity. The United Kingdom and France, possessing the most capable armed forces on the continent and the only European nuclear deterrents, are at the forefront of efforts to establish a credible alternative. However, both countries face historically constrained defense budgets and recruitment challenges that limit their ability to replace the U.S. role in European security. Germany, despite being the continent’s largest economy, has struggled to overcome its strategic shortfalls, even with a significant increase in defense spending and the implementation of a €100 billion fund for the Bundeswehr.
The future of NATO has also become a central concern. Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, the cornerstone of collective defense, now appears vulnerable to U.S. political shifts. Trump has implied that continued American commitment to the Alliance could depend on financial contributions from European allies, potentially turning a security pact based on mutual defense into a transactional arrangement. Such a shift could prompt Russia to test NATO’s cohesion, particularly through hybrid warfare tactics or attempts to destabilize non-member states such as Moldova.
Multiple scenarios are now emerging for Europe. A gradual U.S. disengagement would require significant increases in national defense budgets, revitalization of European arms industries, and enhanced cooperation among EU member states. Although Europe’s defense industry is expanding, it remains dependent on American technology and components. Establishing a common industrial policy and pooling resources, similar to EU energy initiatives, is becoming essential to achieving genuine autonomy.
The possibility of deploying European forces to Ukraine, discussed by some policymakers, could become a critical issue if a ceasefire is negotiated. A peacekeeping mission under European or UN auspices, with French and British forces at the forefront, would represent a significant departure from past security arrangements. However, the legal framework, funding, and political support for such an operation remain uncertain, particularly given the reluctance of some EU member states to engage militarily outside NATO structures.
At the same time, the broader geopolitical balance is at stake. China’s growing influence and its deepening ties with Russia increase the need for Europe to reassess its alliances. A Russian victory in Ukraine would set a precedent that could embolden Beijing to adopt a more assertive stance toward Taiwan. Conversely, a Russian defeat would have far-reaching consequences for the global strategic landscape, strengthening the positions of Washington and its allies in the Indo-Pacific. In this dynamic, Europe can no longer afford a secondary role. Supporting Ukraine is not merely an act of solidarity but a strategic imperative aimed at preserving an international order based on state sovereignty and territorial stability.
Europe stands at a decisive strategic crossroads. The uncertainty surrounding U.S. commitments and the persistence of Russian ambitions require a thorough reassessment of defense and security policies. While Paris and London have key roles to play, the future of European security will ultimately depend on the continent’s ability to unite around a common vision and mobilize the necessary resources to ensure its own defense. In a world where traditional alliances are becoming increasingly fragile and security challenges are multiplying, the question is no longer whether Europe should take control of its security, but whether it still has the time to do so.