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Analysis: What Is Russian RS-26 Rubezh Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Allegedly Used to Strike Ukraine?.
On November 21, 2024, between 5:00 AM and 7:00 AM, Russia allegedly struck the city of Dnipro with an intercontinental ballistic missile, potentially identified as the RS-26 "Rubezh", also known by alternative names such as "Avangard," "Frontier," and NATO's code name "SS-X-31," according to several Ukrainian social media accounts. This missile, categorized as a medium-range ballistic missile, is capable of carrying nuclear warheads. Preliminary information suggests that the launch was conducted from the Kapustin Yar test site in the Astrakhan region of Russia.
RS-26 Rubezh Intercontinental Ballistic Missile Test Launch. (Picture source: CSIS)
If confirmed, this strike could mark a concerning turning point in the conflict, as the RS-26 "Rubezh" is designed for long-range strategic attacks and represents a significant threat, not only to Ukraine but also to regional security. Although the warhead used in this strike does not appear to have been nuclear, the use of such a missile highlights the escalation of means employed by Russia to target critical infrastructure and strategic sites in Ukraine.
The RS-26 "Rubezh" is a ballistic missile whose classification oscillates between medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) and intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), depending on configurations and adopted definitions. Its estimated range, between 2,000 and 6,000 kilometers, corresponds to the medium-range ballistic missile category, primarily used for regional strikes. During tests, the RS-26 demonstrated its capabilities over distances aligning more closely with regional tactical scenarios.
However, this missile is also designed to reach distances exceeding 6,000 kilometers, technically placing it within the ICBM category. This extended range, combined with its ability to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), makes it a strategic asset for Russia, capable of striking intercontinental targets if necessary.
In the context of a strike against Ukraine, the RS-26 was likely used as a medium-range missile. The distance between Russian launch sites, such as Kapustin Yar, and Ukrainian targets is far below the missile’s maximum range. This usage illustrates the RS-26's versatility, capable of serving both regional tactical and intercontinental strategic roles, depending on operational needs.
The attack on Dnipro was carried out as part of a coordinated operation involving other sophisticated missile systems. In addition to the RS-26 "Rubezh" , Russian forces launched a Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic aero-ballistic missile from a MiG-31K fighter jet operating in the Tambov region. Furthermore, seven Kh-101 cruise missiles were fired by Tu-95MS strategic bombers from the Volgograd region.
The RS-26 "Rubezh" is a ballistic missile developed by Russia to fill a strategic role between intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and medium-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs). This system, stemming from a program initiated in 2007, is an advanced and more mobile version of the RS-24 "Yars." It combines enhanced mobility, precision, and advanced missile defense penetration technology.
The RS-26's development was led by the Moscow Institute of Thermal Technology (MITT), one of Russia’s leading ballistic missile design centers. The first tests of this missile were conducted in 2011, but details about these tests remained limited due to the high level of classification surrounding the program. In 2013, additional tests were conducted, notably from the Kapustin Yar launch site to the Sary-Shagan testing ground in Kazakhstan. These tests showcased the missile's ability to follow irregular flight paths, a key feature to evade modern missile defense systems. By 2015, reports suggested that the RS-26 was ready for limited production, although its operational deployment remains uncertain to date.
The RS-26 "Rubezh" stands out for its versatility and advanced technical capabilities. Its range, estimated between 2,000 and 6,000 kilometers depending on payload, places it at the boundary between IRBM and ICBM classifications. It can be mounted on a mobile launcher (TEL - Transporter Erector Launcher), making it extremely difficult to detect and target before launch. The missile can carry either a single nuclear warhead or multiple MIRV warheads, which are designed to perform in-flight maneuvers and evade enemy defense systems. Powered by a solid-fuel engine, the RS-26 also offers a quick-launch capability, further reducing adversaries' reaction time.
One of the RS-26's primary innovations lies in its anti-interception technology. This missile can follow irregular flight trajectories, making interception by conventional missile defense systems extremely difficult. It is also equipped with jamming devices and decoys to disrupt enemy radars and guidance systems, enhancing its operational effectiveness.
Strategically, the RS-26 "Rubezh" represents a formidable weapon. Its range allows it to target both regional installations, such as NATO military bases in Europe, and more distant targets while maintaining credible strategic deterrence. Its mobility provides great flexibility, enabling rapid and discreet deployment. This adaptability also allows the missile to be used with either conventional or nuclear warheads, broadening its range of potential applications.
However, the RS-26's introduction has sparked international controversy. Its intermediate range, while usable in intercontinental configurations, appears to violate restrictions once imposed by the INF Treaty (Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces), abandoned in 2019. Some experts believe the RS-26 is specifically designed for regional strategic strikes, particularly in Europe or Asia, while retaining the ability to threaten longer-range targets. This ambiguous positioning heightens concerns about its role in Russia’s "flexible deterrence" strategy.
According to available information, Ukrainian forces did not intercept the RS-26 "Rubezh" ballistic missile during its recent alleged launch. This outcome reflects the limitations of current air defense systems against advanced ballistic missiles. Designed specifically to evade interception, the RS-26 incorporates sophisticated technical features that significantly complicate neutralization efforts. Its extreme speed, unpredictable trajectories, and use of advanced countermeasures make it a formidable weapon.
The operation of the RS-26 illustrates why it is so difficult to intercept. For instance, during a hypothetical launch from Kapustin Yar in Russia, the missile, powered by a solid-fuel engine, would reach hypersonic speeds (greater than Mach 5) within minutes. During its mid-flight phase, it would leave the Earth’s atmosphere to travel through space at speeds exceeding 7 km/s before reentering the atmosphere toward its target.
In this final phase, the RS-26 "Rubezh" becomes particularly deadly. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles, which follow a predetermined trajectory, the RS-26 can perform sudden and unpredictable maneuvers, complicating calculations for defense systems. It is also capable of deploying decoys into the atmosphere, overwhelming radars and concealing the true warhead. Finally, its extreme speed upon approach leaves defense systems little time to react.
These features render many modern defense systems, such as the Patriot PAC-3 or IRIS-T, widely used by Ukraine to intercept cruise missiles or enemy aircraft, ineffective. Even more advanced systems, such as the U.S.-deployed THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), have faced difficulties intercepting intercontinental ballistic missiles during tests, including those conducted by North Korea.
Russia possesses several ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear payloads, among them the RS-28 Sarmat and the RS-24 Yars, which occupy a central position in its strategic arsenal. The RS-28 Sarmat, also known by its NATO designation "SS-X-30 Satan II," is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) designed to replace the aging RS-36M "Voyevoda" and is considered one of the most powerful strategic weapons globally. With an estimated range exceeding 18,000 kilometers, the RS-28 can carry multiple MIRVs, each capable of delivering nuclear warheads with yields of up to 750 kilotons. This versatility allows it to strike multiple targets simultaneously or deploy advanced countermeasures to evade missile defense systems. The Sarmat is also equipped with hypersonic glide vehicles (HGVs) such as the Avangard, enabling it to follow unpredictable trajectories and penetrate even the most sophisticated missile shields.
The RS-24 Yars, by contrast, is a modernized version of the Topol-M missile, designed to strengthen Russia’s mobile nuclear strike capability. Mounted on mobile launchers or deployed in fixed silos, this intercontinental ballistic missile also features MIRVs and has a range of 11,000 kilometers. Its operational flexibility and ability to deploy multiple warheads make it a key component of Russia’s nuclear triad. The technologies embedded in the RS-24 include electronic countermeasures and optimized flight trajectories to avoid interception.
The recent launch of a ballistic missile capable of carrying a nuclear payload, such as the RS-26 "Rubezh", could be interpreted as a direct response to escalating tensions, particularly the U.S. decision to authorize Ukraine to use extended-range ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile Systems) against targets on Russian territory. Even though the RS-26 used in the attack on Dnipro appears to have been equipped with a conventional warhead, its launch sends several strategically significant messages.
By employing an advanced ballistic missile such as the RS-26, Russia demonstrates its readiness to take the conflict to a new level. Designed for long-range strategic strikes and capable of carrying nuclear warheads, this missile serves as a reminder to the world—particularly the U.S. and Ukraine—that Moscow possesses formidable military capabilities. The use of such a missile, even in a conventional context, amplifies intimidation and underscores the potential for a nuclear response in the event of further escalation.
By launching an advanced ballistic missile, Russia also tests the capabilities of Ukrainian air defenses and Western systems deployed in the region. If these defenses fail to intercept such a threat, it strengthens Moscow’s strategic position by demonstrating that its missiles remain a significant challenge for Ukraine and its allies. Inability to counter the RS-26 might also encourage Russia to employ more of these missiles.
Finally, the mere act of launching a ballistic missile, even with a non-nuclear warhead, has a devastating psychological effect. By targeting a major city like Dnipro, Russia fuels fear and tension, not only among the Ukrainian population but also among its leaders and Western allies. This display is intended as a reminder that Moscow is prepared to resort to increasingly destructive measures if its vital interests are threatened.