Analysis: Russia Fires Five Artillery Shells for Every One Fired by Ukraine Citing US General
General Christopher Cavoli, commander of the US European Command, has highlighted a critical imbalance in the artillery used in the Ukraine conflict, warning that Russia is outpacing Ukrainian forces in shell deployment by a factor that could reach ten to one. This imbalance will inevitably lead to Ukraine's defeat, according to President Zelensky. Let's look at the current state of the fighting in Ukraine.
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A Ukrainian army 2S7 howitzer in action. (Picture source Ukrainian MOD )
In a sobering address to the House Armed Services Committee, General Christopher Cavoli detailed a significant imbalance in the artillery fire rates between Russian and Ukrainian forces, which could severely undermine Ukraine's defensive efforts. According to General Cavoli, Russia is currently firing five artillery shells for every single shell deployed by Ukraine, a ratio that is predicted to widen to ten to one in the coming weeks. This disparity places Ukraine in a precarious position, with a real risk of depleting its artillery ammunition without additional support.
U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan highlighted on March 12, 2024, the critical ammunition shortage faced by Ukraine as Russian troops advance, attributing significant strategic and human costs to this deficit. The loss of Avdiivka last month, marking Russian forces' first victory since May 2023, exemplified this issue; Ukrainian forces retreated due to a lack of artillery munitions necessary to hold their ground since 2014. The aging Ukrainian arsenal, primarily Soviet-era 122 mm and 152 mm artillery, is transitioning to modern 155 mm systems thanks to Western supply, which offers advantages in range, accuracy, and munition variety.
Despite these upgrades and the ability to target precisely using advanced munitions and drone-assisted technologies, Ukraine struggles with the volume of artillery shells needed. Public statements in March 2023 revealed a requirement of 20,000 shells daily to maintain their operations and offensive dynamics, but recent supplies have fallen short, providing only about 2,000 shells per day. Efforts to ramp up domestic production have begun, with hopes to produce 155 mm shells by the latter half of 2024. Ukraine aren't able to counterfire Russian batteries
Highlighting the critical nature of the situation, General Cavoli stated, "If one side can shoot and the other side can’t shoot back, the side that can’t shoot back loses." He emphasized the urgent need for continued US support to prevent a potential defeat for Ukraine in this protracted conflict. The general's remarks resonate with those of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who recently voiced a stark warning that without further support from the United States, Ukraine stands to lose the war against Russia.
This alarming scenario unfolds as Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson withholds a vote on a proposed $60 billion military aid package for Ukraine, essential for replenishing its ammunition and sustaining its defense capabilities. Meanwhile, Russian forces continue their intensified assaults on regions such as Kharkiv, escalating civilian casualties and further damaging Ukraine's energy infrastructure. The ongoing brutality marks a significant escalation in the conflict, drawing comparisons to the worst devastation seen since World War II, as noted by General Cavoli. The international community watches closely as the situation develops, with the stakes for Ukraine and its allies higher than ever.
Militarily speaking, territorial advances and gains remain modest although the Russians have regained the initiative. However, every night there are ongoing aerial attacks, with drone strikes on electrical infrastructures in the Kharkiv region and also Kiev. Today, according to Ukrainian statements, almost all of the electricity production facilities and primary resources are affected by Russian strikes. For example, the Trypilska Thermal Power Plant in the Kyiv region was hit by a massive attack on the morning of April 11, 2024. According to the Ukrainian energy company Centerenergo, the plant is completely destroyed. These strikes, carried out by Kinjal missiles and Shahed-GERAN 2 drones, are targeting three major areas: the Kharkov region, Zaporizhia region and city, and the Kyiv region and its outskirts. After the decommissioning of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the Trypillya Thermal Power Plant, with an installed capacity of 1800 MW, was the largest energy generating facility in the Kyiv region, which provided the Ukrainian capital with electricity.
Alleged impact sites on April 11,2024. (Picture source OSINT/Army Recognition )
Defense News April 2024