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Analysis: How Assad's Fall Impacts Russia's Middle East Strategy and Power Projection.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime on December 8, 2024, in Syria, following a swift offensive by rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), marks a major upheaval for Russia. Since its military intervention in 2015, Moscow had made Syria a cornerstone of its strategy in the Middle East, through the maintenance of strategic bases and the use of this theater as a showcase of its military and diplomatic power. With the loss of the Syrian government, Russia suffers a significant strategic setback, weakening its ability to project power in the Eastern Mediterranean, Africa, and beyond.
Syria represents an invaluable platform for Russian power projection, particularly through two military bases, Tartus and Hmeimim. The Tartus naval base, a legacy of the Soviet era, was Russia’s only naval infrastructure in the Mediterranean. It played a critical logistical role, enabling the maintenance and resupply of the Russian fleet, particularly for operations in Syria, Libya, and other African countries. Since its modernization, initiated in 2008, Tartus had become a true fortress, simultaneously accommodating several large warships. It symbolized the rebirth of the Russian Navy and served as a strategic relay point for naval operations in the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean via the Suez Canal, and even the Horn of Africa.
The loss of Tartus represents a break in Russia's logistical chain, complicating its overseas deployments and significantly reducing its power projection capabilities. Operations in Africa, particularly in Libya, where Moscow supports Marshal Khalifa Haftar, become more complex without this naval support.
The Hmeimim airbase, near Latakia, constituted another pillar of Russia's military setup in Syria. Since 2015, it allowed Russia to carry out intensive airstrikes against rebel and terrorist groups while testing its modern equipment such as Kalibr missiles and Su-35 fighter jets. This base not only enabled dominance over Syrian airspace but also facilitated the monitoring of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Balkans, and Turkey, a key NATO member.
The loss of Hmeimim deprives Russia of an advanced platform for its aerospace forces, limiting its ability to protect its interests in the region. Moreover, it weakens its position relative to competing powers such as the United States and Turkey.
Beyond the loss of its power projection outposts, Russian diplomatic and symbolic influence is also eroded. Supporting the Assad regime allowed Moscow to position itself as a guarantor of stability against the West, offering a "survival package" to autocrats seeking protection. However, the inability to protect its Syrian ally undermines the credibility of this model. In Africa, where Moscow seeks to strengthen its influence in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic, this setback could cast doubt among its partners on its long-term reliability.
Location of the Hmeimim Air Base and the Naval Base in Tartus where Russian forces were stationed in Syria (Picture source: GoogleMaps)
This diplomatic decline is accentuated by the war in Ukraine, which already consumes a significant portion of Russia’s military and economic resources. Combining these two theaters of conflict leaves Russia overstretched, unable to sustain a strong presence both in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
In addition to military and diplomatic implications, the loss of Syria also threatens Moscow's energy ambitions. Tartus played a central role in countering competing projects like the Qatar-Turkey pipeline, which could weaken Gazprom in European energy markets. Without this asset, Russia's ability to influence regional energy flows is significantly diminished.
Moreover, the modernization of Tartus, which required colossal investments, now appears to have been economically wasted. The base was intended not only to support military operations but also to serve as a relay for Russian exports in the region—a role now rendered non-existent.
Turkey emerges as a key player in this new situation. By indirectly supporting the rebels, Ankara has weakened Russia's position while consolidating its control over northern Syria. This tactical victory enhances Turkey’s ability to negotiate with Moscow on other crucial issues, such as the war in Ukraine or energy relations. However, this dynamic risks further straining the already tense relations between the two nations.
Iran, another major ally of the Assad regime, may also seek to fill the vacuum left by Moscow, although its resources are limited. For the United States, these developments provide an opportunity to regain influence in Syria and counter Russian ambitions in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The fall of the Assad regime is a significant blow to Russia, both militarily and geopolitically. Losing its bases in Syria severely undermines Moscow’s power projection ambitions in the Mediterranean and Africa. Furthermore, Russia's image as a protector of autocratic regimes is damaged, potentially weakening future partnerships.
This strategic setback, coupled with the strains of the war in Ukraine, forces Russia to deeply rethink its geopolitical and military priorities. In the short term, Moscow will need to focus on limiting losses while seeking new opportunities to sustain its status as a global power.