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Russia Withdraws its Fleet from Tartus Towards a Total Withdrawal from Syria?.
On December 3, 2024, satellite imagery confirmed a significant strategic shift for the Russian Navy. According to analyses published by MT Anderson and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has evacuated its entire fleet stationed at the Tartus naval base in Syria. This unprecedented move includes the withdrawal of three frigates (two Gorshkov-class and one Grigorovich-class), an improved Kilo-class submarine, and two auxiliary vessels.
According to analyses published by MT Anderson and the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russia has evacuated its entire fleet stationed at the Tartus naval base in Syria. (Picture source: X Account of MT_Anderson)
The temporary closure of the Tartus base reflects the growing complexity of geopolitical challenges faced by Moscow. Turkey is strictly enforcing the Montreux Convention, which prevents Russian warships from transiting the Turkish Straits. This restriction blocks their redeployment to Black Sea ports, likely forcing these vessels to be relocated to Russian fleet bases in northwestern Russia and Kaliningrad.
Moreover, this decision appears to be tied to a potential threat from Syrian opposition forces. Analysts suggest these forces could advance southward towards Hama, approximately 80 kilometers northeast of Tartus, posing a direct risk to this strategic base.
Simultaneously, Ukrainian intelligence reports indicate that the Russian Ministry of Defense has deployed units from its "Africa Corps" to Syria. This recently established organization was created to replace the operations of the Wagner Group in Africa. While the ISW has not yet independently verified these reports, they suggest a reorganization of Russia's presence in Syria to avoid diverting regular forces already engaged on the Ukrainian front.
The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly constrained Russia's ability to support Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria as intensely as it did in the past. With much of its military and logistical resources redirected toward the high-stakes conflict against Ukraine, Russia has been forced to prioritize its strategic focus. This shift has left Moscow unable to maintain the same level of military presence and operational capacity in Syria, as evidenced by the withdrawal of its naval fleet from Tartus and its reliance on units such as the newly formed "Africa Corps" rather than regular forces. These limitations highlight the growing strain on Russia's military apparatus, which now struggles to sustain simultaneous engagements in multiple regions, jeopardizing its influence and commitments in the Middle East.
This new structure, established following the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, aims to ensure the continuity of Russian activities in Africa, particularly in Libya, Mali, Burkina Faso, and the Central African Republic.
The temporary withdrawal of Russian ships from Tartus raises questions about the future of this base, the only naval foothold Russia has in the Mediterranean. The potential loss of Tartus would deal a significant blow to Russia, which uses this facility as a hub for its naval operations in the region.
However, not significantly reinforcing military positions in Syria suggests a strategic prioritization of the Ukrainian front and activities in Africa. This approach reflects Moscow's efforts to adjust its military posture in the face of increasing international pressures and substantial logistical challenges.
The withdrawal of the Russian fleet from Tartus and the potential deployment of the "Africa Corps" to Syria mark a significant reorganization of Russia's military presence in these regions. Despite mounting operational constraints, these movements reflect Moscow’s intent to safeguard its geopolitical interests. For observers, these developments signify a strategic redefinition that could have major consequences for the balance of power in the Mediterranean and the Middle East.