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British Intelligence Reveals Russia's Drone and Decoy Strategy to Saturate Ukrainian Defenses.
In November 2024, Russia escalated its drone campaign against Ukraine, launching approximately 2,300 single-use unmanned aerial systems (UAS), exceeding the already high figures of the previous month. This increase sets a new monthly record and reflects a consistent upward trend observed since the beginning of the year. According to British military intelligence, the launch rate has grown significantly since July, with monthly increases often exceeding 200 additional units.
The drones employed by Russia demonstrate a range of technical capabilities tailored to their missions (Picture source: ZALA)
This surge in drone usage combines sophisticated systems with simpler devices. Between September and November, an estimated 50-60% of the deployed drones were decoys, designed to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses. These decoys, often smaller and less expensive than Shahed drones due to their simplified construction, aim to saturate radar systems and complicate detection efforts, thereby straining defense teams. While classified as decoys, some of these devices carry small explosive payloads of up to 5 kilograms, making them dangerous if they reach their targets.
November’s deployment numbers continued to rise, albeit at a slightly slower growth rate compared to previous months. Preliminary figures for December 2024 indicate approximately 850 launches midway through the month. This apparent decline may be attributed to adverse weather conditions, with periods of inactivity followed by large-scale waves of launches. Experts suggest that the lack of significant impact on launch sites or production facilities enables Russia to sustain monthly deployment levels exceeding 1,500 drones. This approach allows continuous pressure across Ukraine while facilitating the replenishment of long-range missile stocks.
The drones employed by Russia demonstrate a range of technical capabilities tailored to their missions. The Shahed-136 (Geran-2), of Iranian origin, is a single-use kamikaze drone equipped with a substantial explosive payload. It is designed for long-range strikes, with an estimated range of 2,500 kilometers and moderate precision against fixed targets. The ZALA Lancet, a loitering munition, is another single-use drone equipped with advanced optics for target identification. Compact and maneuverable, it carries a small explosive charge, making it effective for precision strikes on specific objectives.
The use of drones in this conflict highlights Russia’s ability to adapt its tactics to strain opposing defenses. This asymmetric strategy forces Ukraine to allocate significant resources to counter attacks that may have limited physical impact but considerable psychological and logistical implications. The large-scale deployment of single-use drones, coupled with a comprehensive targeting strategy across Ukraine, underscores the persistent nature of this threat and the challenges it presents to air defense systems.
In recent months, Russia has increasingly employed drones for targeted strikes, particularly against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. These systems play a central role in operations aimed at disrupting the country’s power supply. Designed for long-range missions, these drones target critical sites such as power plants, substations, and high-voltage transmission lines. By deploying waves of drones, including decoys, Russia increases the likelihood of successful strikes. This strategy not only complicates defensive measures but also aims to weaken Ukraine’s resilience by depriving its population and military of essential energy resources.