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US and Ukrainian Officials Report 50,000 Russian and North Korean Troops Massed for Offensive in Kursk.
According to reports from US and Ukrainian officials published by The New York Times on November 11, 2024, the Russian military has amassed approximately 50,000 troops, including North Korean forces, in preparation for a large-scale offensive to reclaim Ukrainian-held territories in the Kursk region. This mobilization could mark a significant turning point in the conflict, potentially enabling Moscow to engage on multiple fronts without impacting its primary efforts in eastern Ukraine.
Crews of the BM-21 Grad MLRS from the Tula paratroopers were active in the Korenevsky district of the Kursk region on November 9, 2024 (Picture source: Russian MoD)
Kursk, located near the Ukraine border, has become a strategic focal point for Russian forces following a surprise incursion by Ukrainian troops in August. That operation was largely seen as Kyiv’s attempt to pressure Moscow and retain leverage for potential future negotiations. However, Russia’s counteroffensive, bolstered by North Korean soldiers, may shift the balance. North Korean troops, currently training with Russian forces, have been deployed to reinforce Russia's light infantry capabilities. Without armored vehicles, the effectiveness of these North Korean units remains uncertain, especially given Ukraine’s reliance on artillery and drone tactics.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently praised the strategic value of the Kursk incursion, asserting that Ukraine’s presence in the region prevents Russia from deploying its forces to other frontlines within Ukraine. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrsky confirmed that the current operation is "tying down 50,000 enemy soldiers," forces that, he stated, would otherwise have been redeployed to reinforce Russian positions in the Donbas.
The US and its Western allies are closely monitoring this build-up. A new US intelligence assessment suggests that Russia has been able to concentrate these troops in the Kursk region without drawing on forces already active in eastern Ukraine, allowing Moscow to maintain simultaneous operations on multiple fronts. Russia's expanded capacity for such operations raises concerns about Ukraine's ability to maintain its territorial gains and contain further Russian advances.
The involvement of North Korean forces signals an escalation after over two years of conflict. Approximately 10,000 North Korean soldiers are reportedly already in Russia, some armed with machine guns, sniper rifles, and anti-tank missile launchers. These troops, drawn from North Korea’s elite 11th Corps, have received training from Russian forces in artillery, basic infantry tactics, and crucial trench-clearing techniques, which points to a potential role in frontal assaults against Ukraine’s entrenched defensive lines.
US officials believe North Korea may have strategic interests of its own in participating in this conflict, potentially aiming to benefit from the combat experience and evolving tactics. In return, Pyongyang hopes to obtain missile and rocket technology from Russia, along with diplomatic support.
Meanwhile, intense fighting continues in the Donetsk region, where both sides have accused each other of damaging a dam near Kurakhove, heightening the threat to local civilian populations. Russian losses in Kursk have reportedly been significant, with videos from Ukrainian fighters capturing large-scale assaults, sometimes described as "meat-grinder tactics." Nonetheless, despite substantial losses, Russian forces persist in advancing, positioning Kursk as a potentially pivotal front with implications for the broader conflict.
These escalating hostilities coincide with a crucial political transition. The election of Donald J. Trump, set to take office in January 2025, has raised questions about the future of US support for Ukraine. While the president-elect has expressed a desire to end the war quickly, the specifics of his approach remain unclear. Some analysts worry that a Trump administration might adopt a more conciliatory stance toward Moscow, particularly if Ukraine resists certain negotiating terms.
Ukraine now faces a difficult choice: it could either maintain pressure in Kursk with considerable troop reinforcements and potential losses or begin a gradual withdrawal from Russian territory to concentrate resources in the Donetsk region, where Russia has recently made gains. For some military analysts, the latter option seems more prudent given current conditions. There is no clear indication that Kursk will serve as a bargaining chip in any potential peace agreement. Although the offensive in Kursk has had a psychological impact, the current situation appears increasingly complex.