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Analysis: The Norwegian Navy under the 2017-2020 Long Term Defence Plan

Focus - Norwegian Navy Long Term Defence Plan

Analysis: The Norwegian Navy under the 2017-2020 Long Term Defence Plan

By Stelios Kanavakis - Senior Defence Analyst
The Norwegian Ministry of Defence has published its latest Long Term Defence Plan (LTDP) 2017-2020. The latest plan outlines Norway’s strategic priorities, the security environment and the naval force structure of the next five years. The country remains committed to NATO, considering it as the best way to deter external threats. An increased defence budget will provide the financial means to make short-term changes that will set the ground for the long-term investments.

The Norwegian Ministry of Defence has published its latest Long Term Defence Plan (LTDP) 2017-2020. The latest plan outlines Norway’s strategic priorities, the security environment and the naval force structure of the next five years. The country remains committed to NATO, considering it as the best way to deter external threats. An increased defence budget will provide the financial means to make short-term changes that will set the ground for the long-term investments.

A Fridtjof Nansen-class frigate. Source: Norwegian Navy

Strategic deterrence
According to the Long Term Defence Plan, published on 17 June 2016, Norway’s deterrence relies on the ability to give time to allied forces to be deployed in the country before a crisis escalates into an imminent confrontation. That would either deter the opponent(s) not to further escalate into an armed confrontation or in case that deterrence fails, the Norwegian Armed Forces (NAF) would be ready to carry out operations seamlessly and inflict heavy loses to the opponent(s).

Therefore, the Armed Forces’ key efforts are to facilitate allied presence; to promote interoperability and training with allied forces. However, the Norwegian MoD presumes that the basis for a credible deterrence is the country’s ability to respond to a crisis or carry out operations by itself, before any allied forces arrive into the country.

Security concerns
LTDP 2016 regards European cohesion and, global and regional power shifts, as the main security considerations that should be met with increased and better cooperation among the European and NATO states.

Russia does not constitute a military threat to Norway, according to the Defence Plan. However, Moscow’s growing military capabilities, resort to the use of force; strengthening of its nuclear capabilities; destabilization of Eastern Ukraine; its power projection and willingness to exert influence are central factors in the country’s defence planning.

Under these circumstances, although High North is an area where there is still international cooperation, no one can rule out the possibility that Russia could resort to military force in case of a given situation.

Other security concerns include the political instability in the MENA region and Sahel, terrorism and the proliferation of weapons and technologies.

Strategic priorities
To address these issues, the Norwegian MoD has set four priorities. These are:
1. Strengthening the country’s national defence by
• Maintaining situational awareness and crisis management capability;
• Improving readiness, combat power and survivability;
• Improving the ability to receive allied reinforcements and
• Increasing allied military presence with frequent exercises.
2. Strengthening NATO’s collective defence.
3. Contributing to international crisis management.
4. Enhance cooperation between military and civilian organizations under the Total Defence concept.

An Ula-class submarine. Source: Norwegian Navy

Procurement plans
Norway’s procurement plans will focus on providing to the Armed Forces equipment that will allow them to carry out operations in the whole spectrum of conflict.

In addition some of the procurement plans will provide strategic capabilities, that will allow the NAF to identify and track targets from a distance, destroy them if necessary and at the same moment survive in an advanced countermeasures environment.

To implement the necessary procurement plans the government recommended additional funding of NOK165 billion (EUR17.5 billion) over the next 20 years.

The first phase of the procurement plan, up to 2020, will address the deficiencies in spare parts, maintenance and ammunition, which have accumulated over the past years. From 2021 until 2026 the funds will mainly focus on new investment programmes.

Along with the commissioning of new systems and platforms, the Norwegian Armed Forces will implement a reorganization plan that will result in a force structure with higher readiness and availability.

According to its data, the Royal Norwegian Navy has two naval bases, which serve as operational and logistical hubs. The main one is Haakonsvern Orlogsstasjon near Bergen and the secondary, with more limited capabilities, is in Rasmund, at the north of the country. The Coast Guard, which is part of the Navy, has its main base in Sortland, in Northern Norway.

The LTDP 2017-2020 mentions that the service will be organized around the Tactical Sea Command and a logistics base.

The force structure is planned to include the following platforms:
• 5 Nansen-class frigates;
• 6 Skjold-class coastal corvettes;
• 4 new submarines that will replace the six Ula-class;
• 3 logistics and support vessels;
• 6 Mine Countermeasure vessels, which will be reduced to four and later replaced by Mine Countermeasure diving teams;
• 4 Outer Coast Guard vessels with NH90 helicopters;
• 4 Outer Coast Guard vessels without helicopters;
• 5 Inner Coast Guard vessels;
• 14 NHIndustries NH90 helicopters, operated by the Air Force, six of which will be integral to the Nansen-class frigates. The other eight will assume operations with the Coast Guard.

Moreover, Norway plans to replace the LM P-3C Orion maritime patrol aircraft upon their withdrawal from service, with a new platform. The Orions are also operated by the Air Force. Nevertheless, their replacement is in line with the MoD’s plan for increased ISR and crisis management capabilities. The plans for the replacement of the P-3C are to be presented at the Parliament in due course.

A Skjold-class coastal corvette. Source: Norwegian Navy

Personnel
The restructuring plans will also bring changes to the Armed Forces training and composition. In the future, commissioned officers will comprise of 30% of the total force and the rest of the ranks will be the remaining 70%.

Personnel will be reduced but without affecting the services’ combat capabilities, as the reductions will mainly come from administrative roles.

Regarding the Navy, the MoD plans to increase the number of frigate crews from three to five. That will allow the continuous operation of four vessels at all times. A similar approach will be adopted for the Mine Countermeasure vessels. Although their number will be reduced to four, the number of crews will be retained to five, thus increasing the availability of the vessels.

The service’s Coastal Ranger Command will be disband and some of its personnel will be reallocated to the rest of the Navy, while some others will cover the Army’s personnel needs.

Moreover, the Norwegian Armed Forces will create one educational system for both higher military academic and military vocation education. One Armed Forces College will be created and the current six colleges and officers training institutions will merge into one organization structure.

Finally, in an effort to reduce costs, the Armed Forces education will focus on joint initiatives and will give priority “to training and education that cannot be sourced elsewhere and will avoid duplication of functions between the different services and the civil education system.”