Is North Korea Preparing to Launch Its First Advanced Airborne Early Warning Aircraft?.

According to a report published by the IISS on September 16, 2024, satellite imagery suggests that North Korea is making progress in modifying a heavy transport aircraft, likely intended to become the country's first advanced Airborne Early Warning (AEW) platform. However, Pyongyang faces technical challenges in its pursuit to deploy a credible AEW aircraft.
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The conversion work is being carried out on one of three Ilyushin Il-76 Candid aircraft delivered by Russia in the early 1990s, currently based at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport. (Picture source: IISS)

The conversion work is being carried out on one of three Ilyushin Il-76 Candid aircraft delivered by Russia in the early 1990s, currently based at Pyongyang Sunan International Airport. Officially operated by the national airline, Air Koryo, these aircraft are used in parachute drills and can be temporarily camouflaged, indicating their potential availability for military use.

In late 2023, one of the aircraft was moved to a separate maintenance area at the airport, surrounded by new fencing. This enhanced security, followed by the appearance of a covered structure on the fuselage, suggested a special modification of the aircraft. A plausible option is that the plane is being converted for an AEW role or, at the very least, serving as a testbed for an AEW radar. The size and positioning of the observed mounting points are consistent with other Il-76 AEW conversions, such as those conducted by Russia (A-50U Mainstay and A-100), China (KJ-2000), and Iraq (Adnan-2).

Until recently, these mounting points were hidden in satellite imagery, keeping the project secret, even by North Korean standards. However, satellite images from September 8, 2024, revealed modifications, highlighting two converging vertical struts compatible with a radar dome installation.

Additional imagery also showed ventral strakes added to the lower rear fuselage, visible after security screens were placed around this area in August. These strakes are a common feature on other Il-76 AEW conversions, intended to improve flight performance by counteracting the effects of the large radar dome.
On September 3, the Il-76 was briefly moved outside the fenced area to a nearby taxiway, possibly to run engine tests for the first time this year. Open access panels on all four engines suggest maintenance checks were carried out.

More significant is the appearance of a new tent-like structure within the fenced area, likely intended to house the radar dome. With a size of around 130 square meters, its height and location imply that the aircraft was moved to allow for the future installation of the radar dome.

While these developments indicate that Pyongyang aims to establish an AEW system, the imminent physical integration of the radar dome would serve as near-definitive confirmation of these ambitions. An AEW aircraft with reasonable surveillance capabilities would be a valuable addition to North Korea's existing network of ground-based radars, which still largely rely on outdated Soviet systems despite some Chinese equipment and locally produced mobile air-defense radars.

North Korea’s ground-based radars also face the challenge of mountainous terrain covering two-thirds of the peninsula. An AEW aircraft's "look-down" capability would mitigate some of the difficulties posed by the terrain and ground-clutter, allowing for the tracking of low-flying aircraft and cruise missiles.

Pyongyang’s ambition to deploy an AEW aircraft depends on access to a suitable long-range radar system. Existing ground-based systems are not compact enough to be adapted for an airborne role, posing a significant technical challenge. It remains unclear whether North Korea is developing such a system domestically or relying on external assistance, potentially linked to its renewed cooperation with Russia.

Although the Il-76 airframe offers a solid basis for conversion, it could also present challenges for North Korea's relatively limited aviation industry. A design flaw could be catastrophic, as illustrated by Iraq’s attempt to convert an Il-76 to an AEW role in the late 1980s, which reportedly suffered in-flight structural failure, causing the radar dish to break off.

Converting a single Il-76 would not provide permanent AEW coverage, and converting the remaining two aircraft would compromise North Korea's only heavy-lift transport capability. The extent to which this aircraft could function as a simple radar platform, without onboard radar data exploitation or airborne command and control, remains unknown. Effective real-time command and control requires air-to-air datalinks between the AEW platform and combat aircraft. It is uncertain if North Korea’s relatively modern MiG-29 Fulcrums were equipped for this at the time of delivery, or if it would be feasible to retrofit older generations of fighters that comprise most of North Korea’s fleet. North Korea may initially rely on airborne radar data being transmitted to ground stations.

Much about North Korea’s Il-76 modification program remains uncertain. However, the regime’s ambitions in terms of military capabilities are considerable, and the country has previously demonstrated its ability to surprise with unexpected developments.