Northrop Grumman Announces Massive Expansion in B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Production to Counter China.

On October 24, 2024, Northrop Grumman announced that the U.S. Air Force is currently evaluating the possibility of expanding its fleet of B-21 Raider bombers to strengthen its capabilities in response to challenges posed by China. This initiative is part of a broader review of the Air Force's force structure, which could also impact the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) fighter program.

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Northrop Grumman B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber was unveiled to the public at a ceremony Dec. 2, 2022 in Palmdale, California (Picture source: US DoD)

The B-21 Raider Bomber provides the U.S. Armed Forces with a crucial capability for long-range stealth bombing, allowing it to penetrate advanced enemy air defenses and deliver both conventional and nuclear payloads. Its advanced design improves strategic deterrence and enables the U.S. to project power globally, meeting modern operational requirements in contested environments. With rising threats from peer adversaries such as Russia and China, a larger B-21 fleet would enhance the Air Force's ability to respond quickly and effectively across multiple regions, addressing the need for versatile and survivable strike capabilities.

Expanding the B-21 fleet is considered a cost-effective way to enhance U.S. defense posture, particularly as older bombers like the B-1 and B-2 near retirement. Acquiring more B-21s would not only modernize the bomber force but also provide a dual benefit by supporting both conventional missions and nuclear deterrence. As a platform already in production, scaling up B-21 procurement could swiftly improve U.S. military readiness without the delays associated with developing new systems like the NGAD fighter.

Russia and China are developing their own long-range stealth bombers to rival the U.S. B-21. Russia is working on the PAK DA, a stealth bomber designed to replace its older fleet, featuring advanced radar-evading capabilities and long-range strike potential. Meanwhile, China is developing the H-20 stealth bomber, which aims to extend China's strategic reach and conduct missions deep into enemy territory. Both aircraft are intended to challenge U.S. air superiority and enhance their respective nations' strike capabilities.

The B-21 Raider stands out due to its cutting-edge stealth technology, advanced materials, and digital design, which enhance its ability to evade radar detection more effectively than older bombers. Its modular architecture allows for future upgrades, making it adaptable to changing threats. Moreover, the B-21 is built with versatility in mind, supporting both conventional and nuclear missions, giving the U.S. a significant advantage in strategic deterrence and long-range precision strike capabilities.

The B-21 Raider could be deployed in a strategic strike mission aimed at neutralizing heavily defended adversary military installations, such as missile launch sites or command centers deep within enemy territory. With its advanced stealth capabilities, the B-21 could penetrate sophisticated air defenses undetected, deliver precise strikes with conventional or nuclear munitions, and exit the area safely. For example, in a crisis scenario with an adversary possessing advanced anti-aircraft systems, the B-21 could be used to destroy radars or surface-to-air missile batteries, paving the way for other air forces to conduct offensive operations.

In addition to its strategic strike capabilities, the B-21 Raider is designed to perform a wide range of conventional missions, such as supporting military operations in conflict zones, conducting air interdiction, and carrying out precision strikes on mobile targets. For instance, during an air campaign against an enemy force, the B-21 could be used to attack defensive positions, ammunition depots, or military convoys, thereby disrupting the adversary's logistical and operational capabilities. Its stealth allows it to penetrate deep into enemy territory and operate in contested environments, reducing the risk for pilots while maximizing the effectiveness of its strikes. Additionally, the B-21's flexibility enables it to be quickly reconfigured to accommodate various types of conventional missions, adapting its weaponry and sensors to specific field requirements.

Warden revealed during an earnings call on October 24, 2024, that the Air Force is conducting a comprehensive review of its force structure, including the B-21 fleet. This review is part of a congressionally mandated effort to reassess the service's future capabilities and requirements. It also coincides with the Air Force's efforts to complete the NGAD program's requirements analysis, following a pause ordered by Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall earlier this year.

The NGAD program, aimed at developing a sixth-generation fighter to replace the F-22 Raptor, was paused before a decision was made between two competing designs. Kendall cited concerns over the program's cost, with initial estimates suggesting that each aircraft could cost several hundred million dollars. He has since indicated a preference for reducing the per-unit cost to a range closer to that of the F-35 fighter, between $80 million and $100 million. The cost difference, if achieved, could translate into savings of tens of billions of dollars across a planned fleet of 200 to 250 NGAD fighters.

While the official stance of the Air Force has maintained that a fleet of 100 B-21 Raiders would meet current operational needs, there are growing voices within the defense community advocating for a larger fleet. The B-21 is designed to replace the aging B-2 Spirit and B-1 Lancer bombers, providing the U.S. military with a long-range stealth bomber capable of penetrating advanced air defenses. The platform is a cornerstone of the Air Force's future strategic deterrence and conventional strike capabilities.

Northrop Grumman, the B-21's prime contractor, has stated that it is ready to increase production if the Air Force decides to expand the fleet. According to Warden, the decision on fleet size will likely become clearer in the coming months as the force structure review progresses. She emphasized that the performance and cost targets achieved during the B-21's initial production phase could influence the Air Force's decision.

The cost of the B-21 has been a central issue in these discussions. The bomber's original unit cost was contractually set at $550 million in 2010, equivalent to approximately $780 million today. Despite this, Kendall informed Congress in April that B-21 production costs had remained below projections during low-rate initial production. However, the cost ceiling is expected to rise as production ramps up in later batches.

Several senior officials and defense analysts have argued for increasing the B-21 fleet beyond the initial 100 units. Retired Colonel Mark Gunzinger, a senior fellow at the Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies, has been outspoken about the need to increase the Air Force's bomber capacity to address emerging threats. He points out that the current bomber force is too small to meet the demands of a rapidly changing strategic environment, especially in deterring and potentially responding to simultaneous threats from peer adversaries like Russia and China.

Gunzinger believes that the B-21 Raider is particularly well-positioned to strengthen both conventional and nuclear deterrence due to its stealth capabilities, long range, and substantial payload capacity. He asserts that acquiring more B-21s at an accelerated pace would be the most cost-effective approach to strengthening the United States' power projection capabilities and operating in contested environments. Expanding the bomber fleet would provide a dual benefit by bolstering both conventional defense and strategic deterrence.

Air Force General Anthony J. Cotton, head of U.S. Strategic Command, has also expressed support for increasing the number of B-21 bombers, emphasizing their importance in maintaining a credible deterrent posture. His views are echoed by other analysts, such as Christopher Bowie, who have suggested that 100 aircraft may not be sufficient for the U.S. to achieve its strategic goals, given that even the most advanced bomber can only be in one place at a time.

One of the central questions in the ongoing review is whether potential savings from reducing the NGAD program could be redirected to fund additional B-21 bombers. The Air Force is attempting to balance the competing demands of modernizing its aging fleet while adhering to budget constraints. However, some experts, including Gunzinger, caution against viewing the NGAD and B-21 programs as interchangeable.

This pause has opened the door for the B-21 to play a more significant role in the Air Force's future force structure. Northrop Grumman's willingness to increase production adds to the service's strategic flexibility as it navigates the challenges of modernizing its fleet under fiscal constraints.

Warden indicated that the Air Force is expected to award a second low-rate initial production (LRIP) contract for the B-21 before the end of the year. The first LRIP contract was awarded following the bomber's first flight last year, although specifics regarding the number of aircraft covered under the agreement have not been disclosed. The outcome of the current force structure review and ongoing budget negotiations will likely influence future production rates and fleet size decisions.

As the Air Force continues to assess its options, the B-21 remains a key element in the broader strategy to enhance U.S. airpower capabilities. Whether the service will ultimately expand its fleet of stealth bombers will depend on a variety of factors, including cost considerations, technological developments, and the evolving threat landscape. In the meantime, Northrop Grumman is positioning itself to respond quickly to increased demand, offering the U.S. government flexibility in shaping the future of its bomber force.

The reconsideration of the B-21 Raider fleet size underscores the dynamic nature of the U.S. Air Force's modernization strategy, driven by both strategic needs and budgetary realities. With the ongoing review of the NGAD program and discussions about expanding the bomber fleet, the Air Force is at a critical juncture. The decisions made in the coming months will shape the future of American airpower and its ability to deter adversaries and project power worldwide.