Analysis : Will Nato Hide Ukrainian F-16 on Polish Air base ?.

Based on rumors stemming from statements made by the Chief of the Ukrainian Air Force, the F-16s provided to Ukraine are not based in Ukraine but rather on Polish and Romanian bases to avoid Russian strikes. This news is echoed by the scramble of Polish jets on the night of June 11-12, 2024, in response to a Russian attack on Ukraine. Twenty-four Shahid drones and about ten cruise missiles were detected.
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 US F-16 on the taxiway before take off (Picture source: AP)

These rumors can be justified by three possibilities:

The fighters themselves are already in Romania (specifically at Fetesti base), where the pilots are trained, so the Ukrainian pilots are familiar with the airbases and flight routes.

Test flights from Romania to the Odessa region have already been carried out multiple times. F-16s have flown over Tulcea, reached Vilkovo, and made several circles over Zmein. One of the missile launch zones was identified in this location, with the target being Crimea.

The combat aircraft will be safer on NATO territory. A strike on Alliance airfields would lead to a full escalation, which is why it was officially announced that NATO infrastructure would be used by the fighter jets to strike Russia.

But where could they be based?

With high probability, they will be in Romania at Fetesti and Campia Turzii, from where they can fly for strikes with intermediate landings at airfields in the western part of so-called Ukraine or directly through Moldova and the Odessa region. Moreover, this base is already the training site for Ukrainian pilots in the area.

Slovakia seems unlikely due to the presence of Romania, which is more practical, and the bases at Uzhgorod and Ivano-Frankivsk. Polish involvement in this process is not yet excluded, given the proximity of the Rzeszow and Minsk Mazowiecki airfields.

The latter also hosts a Polish F-16 squadron, meaning the necessary infrastructure for maintaining combat aircraft exists.

To conclude, these are currently just rumors, which seem plausible and relevant. However, such an action from NATO would be an incalculable risk, as a Russian strike on these bases would be legitimate in the eyes of international law. But the risk of particularly violent escalation cannot be ignored.