Analysis: Why Donald Trump wants Greenland for US missile defense and rare earth supplies.

On January 8, 2025, the BBC reported that Donald Trump reaffirmed his intention for the United States to acquire Greenland, emphasizing its importance for national security and economic interests. Trump did not rule out using military or economic measures to pursue this objective, highlighting Greenland's strategic significance for Arctic defense and resource extraction. Greenland’s leadership, supported by Denmark, strongly rejected the proposal, reiterating that the territory is not for sale and emphasizing the principle of self-determination.
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The M1A2 SEP V3 Abrams tank integrates advanced systems that require rare earth elements for components like electronics, sensors, and communication systems, though the specific rare earths involved are not publicly detailed. (Picture source: US DoD)

Donald Trump's renewed interest in acquiring Greenland is driven by its strategic military significance and abundant natural resources. Greenland's location in the Arctic is pivotal for national security, hosting the Pituffik Space Base, a crucial element of the U.S. missile early warning system. Additionally, the island's vast reserves of minerals, including rare earth elements, present substantial economic opportunities. Trump views acquiring Greenland as essential for countering geopolitical rivals like Russia and China, who are increasing their presence in the Arctic region.

The United States has shown interest in Greenland since 1867, when Secretary of State William H. Seward explored purchasing both Greenland and Iceland, though Congress opposed the idea. After World War II, in 1946, the U.S. offered Denmark $100 million in gold bars for Greenland, citing military necessity, but Denmark declined. During the Cold War, the U.S. established the Thule Air Base in Greenland, underscoring the island's strategic importance. Trump's recent proposals echo these historical attempts, emphasizing both security and economic factors.

Reactions to Trump's proposal have been predominantly negative. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen dismissed the idea as unrealistic, stating that Greenland is not for sale. Greenland's Prime Minister Múte Egede reiterated that the island is not on the market, emphasizing Greenland's autonomy and the importance of self-determination. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also rejected the notion, stressing the need to respect allies' sovereignty. These responses reflect a consensus that Greenland's future should be determined by its inhabitants, rather than external actors.

The discussion surrounding Greenland is tied to the importance of critical raw materials (CRMs), including rare earth elements. These materials are essential for manufacturing technologies such as smartphones, electric vehicles, and renewable energy systems, as well as defense systems. CRMs are categorized by their economic value and their unique properties, which are often irreplaceable in high-tech applications, coupled with their limited availability and the complexities associated with their extraction and processing. For instance, the European Union identified 34 such materials in its latest 2024 Critical Raw Materials Act. More importantly, such materials are vital for the production of most modern military vehicles, which require specific CRMs for structural, electronic, and propulsion components.

Greenland's location in the Arctic is pivotal for national security, hosting the Pituffik Space Base, a crucial element of the U.S. missile early warning system. (Picture source: US DoD)

For example, critical raw materials (CRMs) are essential to producing tanks and infantry fighting vehicles, such as the Swedish-made CV90. Infantry fighting vehicles heavily rely on aluminum for structural components and graphite for electronic systems, ensuring functionality under diverse operational conditions. Beryllium is used in connectors and onboard electronics due to its lightweight and conductive properties. Titanium and iron/steel are employed for armor and propulsion systems, with the latter providing durability and structural strength. Copper supports communication systems, while tungsten enhances precision-guided mechanisms and armament effectiveness.

Fighter aircraft, like the American F-16 and F-35, require a broad array of CRMs due to their high-performance demands. Aluminum and graphite are key for airframes, including the body, wings, and tail, due to their lightweight and strength. Titanium is widely used in propulsion systems, including turbines and nozzles, for its heat resistance and strength. Copper is applied in electro-optical and control systems, while nickel is used in airframes and propulsion systems for heat resistance. Rare earth elements such as neodymium and dysprosium enable advanced avionics and control systems. Borates and gallium are crucial for radar, sensors, and electronic warfare systems, highlighting the reliance on materials with specific electromagnetic properties.

Warships depend on a narrower but critical set of materials. Aluminum is used for decks, superstructures, and propulsion shafts, while titanium and iron/steel form the hulls and structural reinforcements for their corrosion resistance and strength. Copper supports propulsion systems and onboard electrical components. Lithium and silver are utilized in battery technologies for submarines and torpedoes, enabling energy storage and propulsion. Nickel and cobalt are integral to electronic systems, navigation radars, and sonar, providing reliability in marine environments. These materials collectively ensure the vessels' operational effectiveness in various naval scenarios.

China leads the global production of rare earth elements, accounting for 69% of output in 2023, with a mine production of approximately 240,000 metric tons. The United States produced 43,000 metric tons (12.3% of global production), followed by Myanmar (38,000 metric tons), Australia (18,000 metric tons), Thailand, India, and Russia in smaller quantities. China also dominates refining and processing capabilities, which are critical for transforming raw materials into usable components for high-tech and defense industries.

In December 2023, China imposed an export ban on rare earth extraction and separation technologies, citing national security concerns. The ban aimed to preserve China's technological edge and limit other nations' ability to achieve independence in this sector. Additional measures in 2024 included production and export quotas aimed at preserving domestic supplies for priority industries. China has declared rare earth resources state-owned and has used export restrictions in trade negotiations and geopolitical disputes, solidifying its influence over global supply chains.

The U.S. defense industry heavily relies on Chinese rare earth materials, which constitute approximately 80% of the supply used in defense systems. The embargo affects the production of technologies such as F-35 fighter jets, which require rare earth magnets, creating risks of supply chain disruptions, delays in manufacturing, and increased costs. To address this, the U.S. is exploring alternative sources and increasing domestic investment in rare earth production to reduce dependency and strengthen supply chain resilience. Donald Trump's latest announcements on Greenland, while seemingly extreme, may therefore seem logical from a purely strategic point of view.

(Picture sources: The Hague Centre for Strategic Studies)