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Canada Increases Military Spending and Seeks Alternative Arms Suppliers in Response to US Annexation Threats.
According to Politico, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has announced an increase in military spending, stating that the country must now prepare for “American threats to our sovereignty.” This firm stance, unusual in Canadian political discourse, comes amid an unprecedented diplomatic rift between Ottawa and Washington. The tension stems from a series of provocative statements by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has publicly suggested incorporating Canada as the 51st U.S. state. During a speech in Ontario while presenting the Liberal Party’s electoral platform, Carney denounced what he described as expansionist ambitions, calling for a national awareness of the vulnerability of Canadian autonomy in the current international context.
A central element of this plan is the reinforcement of Canada’s military presence in the North, a region that has gained strategic importance as melting ice opens new maritime routes and access to sought-after natural resources. (Picture source: Canadian MoD)
Carney, a former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, took over as Prime Minister last month following the resignation of Justin Trudeau. With general elections approaching, he appears well-positioned to win a parliamentary majority, bolstered by a notable surge in polling support. This momentum is largely driven by his firm position on U.S.-Canada relations. Trump’s recent comments and the imposition of trade tariffs have unsettled many Canadians. Unlike other allied leaders who have opted for caution, Carney has chosen a direct and critical response to what he sees as a challenge to Canada’s territorial integrity.
The Liberal platform places national sovereignty at the heart of its agenda. It proposes a military investment plan of 30.9 billion Canadian dollars over four years—approximately 16.8 billion pounds sterling. This would raise Canada’s defense spending well above the NATO target of 2% of GDP, compared to the current 1.37%. However, Ottawa has rejected Washington’s call for a 5% defense spending threshold, viewing it as unrealistic and unsuitable for the budgetary context of most allied nations. To fund this increase, the government plans to reduce federal public service expenditures, notably by limiting the use of private consultants.
A central element of this plan is the reinforcement of Canada’s military presence in the North, a region that has gained strategic importance as melting ice opens new maritime routes and access to sought-after natural resources. The government has expressed concern over Chinese outreach to Indigenous communities in the Arctic, as well as Russian military activity in the area. In response, several procurement programs have been launched, including the acquisition of conventional submarines, new icebreakers, and armed drones to better secure Canada’s northern maritime zones and to strengthen deterrence against foreign incursions.
However, this rearmament strategy raises a significant contradiction. While the government emphasizes strategic independence, a notable portion of the planned systems—such as MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones and HIMARS rocket artillery—are U.S.-made. This raises questions about the coherence of Carney’s message: can a country claim to defend its sovereignty while remaining dependent on military technology from a nation perceived as a threat? This paradox underscores the challenges of moving away from a historically embedded defense relationship with the United States and highlights the complexity of redefining strategic partnerships.
In response to this structural dilemma, the government appears to be cautiously shifting its acquisition strategy. Talks have begun with Swedish manufacturer Saab regarding the JAS 39 Gripen E fighter, a potential alternative to the American F-35. Designed to operate in extreme weather conditions and suited to Canada’s specific needs, the Gripen also offers the possibility of local production—a prospect that could support Canada’s defense industrial base while reducing reliance on U.S. suppliers. Though still under consideration, this option aligns with the government’s aim to diversify its industrial and strategic partnerships.
The Liberal investment plan also focuses on assets that offer greater operational autonomy. The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project (CPSP) outlines the procurement of 12 conventionally powered submarines intended to provide long-term maritime deterrence along Canada’s three coasts. In parallel, two new heavy icebreakers have been ordered for the Canadian Coast Guard—one to be built by Seaspan in Vancouver, the other by Davie in Lévis. These vessels, domestically constructed, are intended to bolster Canada’s Arctic presence while supporting local employment and industrial capacity.
To ensure the success of this strategy, the government will need to accelerate efforts to diversify arms suppliers. Several alternatives exist, particularly in Europe and Asia, for acquiring advanced equipment in areas such as drones, artillery, and command systems. However, such a transition requires sustained diplomatic engagement, consistent political will, and a thorough overhaul of procurement procedures. It also implies a redefinition of national industrial priorities to facilitate the development of high-end defense capabilities within Canada.
Carney has stated that it is no longer viable for Canada to rely so heavily on the United States for its national security. He emphasized that Washington’s strategic priorities have shifted, and Canada can no longer base its defense policy on foundations that have become unstable. He stressed the need to modernize the Canadian Armed Forces, which have been underfunded for too long, and to establish a coherent defense industrial policy aligned with the country’s current sovereignty and innovation challenges.
Beyond defense, the Liberal platform also seeks to reduce the country’s economic dependence on the United States. It includes measures to boost interprovincial trade, support key sectors such as agriculture and automotive manufacturing—especially in Ontario—and reinforce local supply chains. The outcome of these initiatives could be pivotal in determining the electoral result, as nearly two million Canadians have already voted in early polls. Current projections indicate a comfortable Liberal majority with 196 seats, compared to 122 for the Conservatives, well above the 172 required to form a government.
Mark Carney’s promise to significantly strengthen Canada’s military capabilities comes at a politically and diplomatically unprecedented moment, marked by a sharp decline in relations with the country’s closest ally. In this uncertain context, the interim Prime Minister aims to lay the foundation for a more autonomous defense policy centered on resilience and strategic independence. If implemented, this shift could reshape the fundamentals of Canadian national security for the decade ahead.