Exclusive Analysis: North Korea’s Latest Hypersonic Missile Test Points to Possible Advanced Hwasong-16B Model.

On January 6, 2025, North Korea successfully conducted the test launch of a hypersonic missile described by state media as a "new model," signaling a significant leap in its missile development program. The missile is similar to the Hwasong-16B hypersonic Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missile (IRBM), first unveiled in April last year, though it appears to have been upgraded with advanced materials and technologies. The missile reportedly traveled approximately 1,500 km (932 miles) at speeds exceeding Mach 12, reaching an altitude of nearly 100 k before striking a designated target in the East Sea. Defense analysts suggest this latest test underscores North Korea’s progress in refining its hypersonic capabilities.
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North Korea's newly tested hypersonic missile, described as a 'new model,' shares similarities with the Hwasong-16B IRBM, first unveiled in April last year. (Picture source: North Korea press agency KCNA)

The Hwasong-16B is considered one of North Korea's most advanced hypersonic missile systems, featuring a solid-fuel propulsion system that offers rapid launch readiness and greater mobility compared to traditional liquid-fuel missiles. This capability reduces detection and interception risks, giving the missile a strategic advantage. The upgraded version tested on Monday reportedly incorporates carbon-fiber composite materials, which enhance structural strength, thermal resistance, and aerodynamic efficiency. These improvements are particularly critical for sustaining hypersonic flight and ensuring successful re-entry during high-speed maneuvers. The latest design is believed to support a maneuverable hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), a component aimed at evading missile defense systems with unpredictable flight paths.

Hypersonic missiles are considered one of the most dangerous modern weapons due to their speed, maneuverability, and precision. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles, which follow a predictable trajectory, hypersonic missiles can change course mid-flight, making them extremely difficult to detect and intercept. Traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound), they drastically reduce the reaction time available to adversaries. When equipped with conventional or nuclear warheads, their precision and destructive potential pose a severe threat to military assets, infrastructure, and population centers. This capability significantly destabilizes the global security landscape, as existing missile defense systems struggle to cope with the unique challenges posed by hypersonic weapons.

Globally, several countries are investing heavily in hypersonic missile technology, driving an arms race in this domain. The United States is developing systems like the Hypersonic Glide Body (C-HGB) and the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) to maintain its technological edge. These programs focus on precision-strike capabilities and the ability to target heavily defended regions. Russia, on the other hand, has operationalized systems like the Avangard and Kinzhal, boasting nuclear-capable hypersonic weapons with intercontinental reach. China has also achieved significant milestones, with the development of the DF-17, a medium-range missile equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, highlighting its commitment to regional dominance.

North Korea’s advancements in this field align with global trends, but its rapid progress raises concerns about unchecked proliferation. Meanwhile, South Korea and Japan are also developing hypersonic systems, though their focus has been more on defensive applications and precision targeting. South Korea, for instance, is utilizing advanced ramjet propulsion and high-precision guidance systems to counter North Korea's growing missile threats.

The race to develop hypersonic technology is fueled by its potential to disrupt existing military doctrines. Hypersonic missiles provide a combination of speed, range, and maneuverability that can bypass traditional air and missile defense systems, reshaping strategies for both offense and defense. As a result, these weapons are regarded not only as game-changers in modern warfare but also as destabilizing factors, intensifying global military competition and raising the risk of escalation in conflicts.

While North Korea describes its new missile as a groundbreaking advancement, verification of its claimed performance metrics remains ongoing. Nevertheless, the refinement of the Hwasong-16B demonstrates Pyongyang’s clear intention to bolster its strategic deterrence capabilities and maintain its relevance in the hypersonic arms race. The increasing sophistication of hypersonic weapons worldwide underscores the need for international dialogue and cooperation to address the threats posed by this transformative technology.