Focus: Russia Set to Ramp Up Missile Production in 2025 with 750 Iskander and 560 Kh-101 Missiles.

According to a report shared on February 24, 2025, by defense analyst John Hardie on his X (formerly Twitter) account, Russia is ramping up its missile production in 2025, with plans to produce more than 750 9M723 Iskander ballistic missiles and over 560 Kh-101 cruise missiles. These figures, drawn up by the Russian Ministry of Defence, signal a significant surge in missile production that could have substantial implications for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and for broader security dynamics in the region.
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Transloader (on the left) and 9P78-1 TEL on the right (Transporter Erector Launcher) equipped with 9M723K5 missiles, part of the 9K720 Iskander-M SRBM system, designed for rapid deployment and precision strikes. (Picture source: Vitaly Kuzmin)

The 9M723 Iskander, part of the Iskander tactical missile system, is a short-range ballistic missile designed to provide high accuracy and fast deployment. It can strike targets at ranges up to 500 kilometers, with various warhead options, including conventional and nuclear payloads. The Iskander system is known for its maneuverability during flight, which makes it more difficult for enemy air defenses to intercept. Its mobile launch platforms allow for rapid repositioning, enhancing its survivability in a contested battlefield environment. With 750 of these missiles planned for production in 2025, Russia aims to bolster its ability to conduct precise, high-impact strikes against key military and infrastructure targets.

The Kh-101 is a long-range air-launched cruise missile that Russia primarily uses to target high-value strategic assets. With a range of up to 4,500 kilometers, the Kh-101 is a crucial weapon for Russia's long-range strike capabilities. The missile is capable of carrying both conventional and nuclear warheads, allowing for strategic flexibility. It is known for its stealth characteristics, designed to reduce its radar cross-section and increase its chances of penetrating advanced air defense systems. The missile’s ability to travel at subsonic speeds and fly at low altitudes enables it to avoid detection by radar, making it a formidable weapon for deep strikes against enemy territory. The production of 560 Kh-101 missiles in 2025 reflects Russia's effort to maintain a significant deterrence capability, particularly as the conflict in Ukraine continues to evolve.

While Russia has set ambitious targets for missile production, Ukrainian defense officials remain cautious and vigilant. A Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) representative emphasized that Russia's missile production is still critically dependent on foreign components. Despite efforts to bolster domestic manufacturing capabilities, Moscow remains reliant on foreign suppliers for key parts, complicating efforts to maintain consistent production levels. This dependence on external sources underscores the importance of the international sanctions regime, which has limited Russia’s access to advanced components for missile and weapon systems. The GUR representative urged international bodies to tighten sanctions enforcement and strengthen monitoring to hamper further Russia’s ability to replenish its missile stockpiles.

Russia has achieved relatively high monthly monthly production rates as part of its strategy to maintain a robust missile arsenal. According to Ukrainian intelligence estimates, Russia is capable of producing approximately 40 to 50 Iskander missiles per month. The Kalibr missiles, a family of cruise missiles launched from both ships and submarines, are being produced at a rate of 30 to 50 units per month. Additionally, about 50 Kh-101 missiles are being manufactured monthly, further contributing to Russia's missile capabilities. These production rates are significant, given the ongoing conflict with Ukraine. The ability to produce such quantities of missiles on a monthly basis could allow Russia to continue conducting large-scale missile strikes, potentially targeting critical infrastructure, military installations, and other key sites in Ukraine.

The increase in Russia’s missile production, coupled with ongoing missile strikes in Ukraine, continues to create a persistent and escalating threat to Ukrainian civilians and military personnel. Ukrainian intelligence officials, particularly through the voice of representative Andriy Yusov, have urged citizens to take air raid warnings seriously, as large-scale Russian missile strikes remain a constant danger. The increasing frequency of missile attacks, combined with the growing stockpiles of Russia’s missile arsenal, makes it clear that air defense systems, early warning mechanisms, and civil protection measures will remain critical for Ukraine's defense in the coming months. Ukrainian authorities continue to emphasize the need for vigilance, as the risk of missile strikes is not expected to diminish anytime soon.

The escalation of Russia's missile production in 2025 also has broader international implications. The increased missile stockpiles, along with Russia’s ongoing reliance on foreign components, highlight the critical role of sanctions in shaping the conflict. Western nations and allies of Ukraine will likely focus on strengthening the enforcement of sanctions to disrupt Russia’s missile production capacity. The situation presents a key challenge for both Russia and the international community, as the impact of sanctions will play a pivotal role in either constraining or enabling Russia's military actions in the near future.

Russia's missile production plans for 2025 demonstrate its commitment to enhancing its missile stockpiles, particularly in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine. While the production of the Iskander and Kh-101 missiles is set to increase significantly, the ongoing reliance on foreign components remains a critical vulnerability. Ukrainian intelligence officials continue to monitor Russia’s production capabilities closely, while urging both international bodies and citizens to remain vigilant as the risk of large-scale missile strikes persists. The continued enforcement of sanctions and the monitoring of Russia's ability to acquire foreign components will play a crucial role in limiting the scope of Russia's missile production and its capacity for prolonged strikes.