Report: France Prepares its Forces and Economy for a Major European War by 2030.

As geopolitical tensions have continued to intensify since 2022, France is updating its strategic posture to address a deeply degraded security environment. This is reflected in the new edition of the National Strategic Review (RNS), published by the General Secretariat for Defense and National Security (SGDSN) on July 14, 2025, alongside presidential announcements concerning increased military funding. This updated document comes in a context marked by worsening global security threats, including Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, China's offensive posture, and the persistence of hybrid, cyber, and informational threats.
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France will invest in air and missile defense, deep strike capabilities, control of the electromagnetic spectrum, anti-drone warfare, munitions, and drones (Picture source: French MoD)

The RNS presents an unambiguous assessment: "The reality of the Russian threat is now unparalleled in terms of the interests of France and Europe," and the risk of a major high-intensity war in Europe by 2030 is considered high. Russia is pursuing a rapid reconstruction of its armed forces, aiming to increase its manpower by 300,000 soldiers and to possess 3,000 tanks and 300 additional combat aircraft by 2030. Its nuclear doctrine has been revised and its explicit threats now directly target Europeans, whom it labels as enemies.

In this context, President Macron announced an unprecedented budgetary effort: an additional 6.5 billion euros compared to the Military Programming Law (LPM) 2024-2030, bringing the military budget to 64 billion euros as early as 2027. This effort is aimed at raising defense spending to 3.5% of GDP by 2035 in line with the commitment made at the NATO summit in The Hague last June.

France’s ambition by 2030 is clear: to be materially and morally equipped to prevent and if necessary, win a high-intensity war in Europe. The RNS defines eleven strategic objectives with nuclear deterrence remaining the cornerstone of France’s strategy. This deterrence is based on the two strategic components, oceanic and airborne, both undergoing renewal, including the development of the ASN4G missile and the third generation of nuclear ballistic missile submarines.

The strengthening of conventional forces is also central. France will invest in air and missile defense, deep strike capabilities, control of the electromagnetic spectrum, anti-drone warfare, munitions, and drones. Capability development will also focus on the ability to command and support a land component at the operational level within a coalition as well as on warfare means in space with particular emphasis on satellite constellations for intelligence and secure communications.

The industrial sector is also targeted. The national economy must prepare for war by reinforcing the resilience of production chains and diversifying critical supplies. The defense industrial reserve will be strengthened, and short-cycle production capacity encouraged to meet the needs of a high-intensity conflict.

National resilience also involves a moral rearmament and broader societal mobilization. The government plans to renovate territorial operational defense, modernize the National Guard, and establish a civic pathway focused on resilience and engagement particularly for youth. Efforts to combat foreign interference and information manipulation will be intensified, especially against Russian subversive actions that exploit social networks to undermine national cohesion.

Lastly, France will continue to support the ambition of a strong European pillar within NATO and a consolidated European strategic autonomy. President Macron emphasized that "France's vital interests now have a European dimension" paving the way for a strengthened strategic dialogue with partners regarding the role of French deterrence in the continent's security.

The 2025 National Strategic Review marks a scaling up of France's preparation for major conflict. Far from being a mere doctrinal update, it constitutes a structured and comprehensive response to a world now characterized by the return of war to the European continent, the rise of technological threats, and the weakening of the international order.