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Rise in Russian and Chinese Aerial Incursions Forces Japan to Strengthen Defensive Posture in Indo-Pacific.
Japan’s Ministry of Defense has reported a marked increase in emergency fighter jet scrambles conducted between April 1, 2024, and March 31, 2025. During this fiscal year, 2024, the Japan Air Self-Defense Force (JASDF) executed 704 scrambles, up from 669 in the previous year. This increase, detailed in a report released by the Joint Staff Office (JSO) on April 11, is largely attributed to a significant rise in Russian aerial incursions, while Chinese incursions—still representing the majority—declined slightly. These aerial activities are not isolated events; they form part of a broader geopolitical context marked by growing strategic tension in East Asia, where China and Russia are actively seeking to reshape the regional security order traditionally led by the United States and its allies.
Russia, for its part, continues to apply military pressure through sustained air activity. Several Tu-95 bomber flights, some with full circumnavigation of Japan, have been observed (Picture source: Japan MoD)
The frequency and nature of Russian and Chinese incursions near Japan reflect a deeper shift in regional strategic dynamics. Since fiscal year 2013, Japan has consistently recorded between 700 and 1,000 scrambles annually, underscoring persistent pressure on its airspace. In 2024, Chinese aircraft accounted for 464 scrambles—approximately 66% of the total—down slightly from 479 the previous year. Russian aircraft, however, were responsible for 237 scrambles, a significant increase from 174 in 2023. These figures illustrate a growing air threat in the immediate vicinity of Japan.
These incursions go beyond traditional shows of force. They represent a coordinated strategy by Moscow and Beijing to challenge U.S. military dominance in the region. Joint flights involving Chinese and Russian strategic bombers, often escorted by fighters, over the Sea of Japan, East China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean are intended as a clear signal to both Tokyo and Washington. The two countries are strengthening military cooperation to influence the regional security architecture. These operations, which have increased since 2019, indicate a convergence of strategic objectives aimed at countering Western containment efforts.
The sharp rise in Chinese drone activity adds another dimension to this trend. In 2024, 23 distinct drone flights were recorded, up from just eight the previous year. These unmanned aerial vehicles, including the WZ-10 Wing Loong 10 and the GJ-2 Wing Loong II, have increasingly flown through air corridors between Yonaguni and Taiwan, continuing along Taiwan’s eastern coastline. This growing presence demonstrates China’s expanding intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities in an area considered critical to Japan’s national defense and to the security of the Taiwan Strait. These missions are part of a broader effort by Beijing to observe, map, and test U.S. and Japanese defense arrangements in the southwestern region of Japan, while also extending its influence beyond its maritime periphery.
Russia, for its part, continues to apply military pressure through sustained air activity. Several Tu-95 bomber flights, some with full circumnavigation of Japan, have been observed. In September 2024, a Russian aircraft violated Japanese airspace three times in a single day, prompting the JASDF to deploy warning flares for the first time. Such actions are designed to test Japan’s defensive readiness, strain its operational tempo, and maintain continuous pressure on the regional security system.
These incursions also carry symbolic weight. They underscore ongoing disputes over sensitive areas such as the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—administered by Japan but claimed by China—and the Kuril Islands, claimed by Japan but occupied by Russia since the end of World War II. By flying over or near these contested zones, Beijing and Moscow seek to assert their territorial claims while challenging the legitimacy of Japanese military deployments.
For Japan, these developments present major strategic challenges. The JASDF’s rapid response capabilities are being stretched, with pilots and aircraft regularly mobilized. The persistent pressure has revived domestic debate over Japan’s constitutional limitations on military force, including discussions on acquiring counterstrike capabilities. Simultaneously, Japan is reinforcing bilateral cooperation with the United States and expanding ties with regional partners such as Australia, the Philippines, and South Korea, under its vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.
In summary, fiscal year 2024 highlights a coordinated intensification of Chinese and Russian pressure on Japanese airspace. These actions are not isolated provocations but components of a broader strategy aimed at undermining the regional security order, projecting power, and challenging the U.S.-Japan alliance. Against this backdrop, Japan is compelled to reassess its defense posture and its role in regional stability, as the militarization of East Asia’s airspace continues to accelerate under the combined influence of Beijing and Moscow.