Russia Claims Nuclear-Capable Oreshnik Ballistic Missile Deployed to Belarus.

Russia says it has deployed its new nuclear-capable Oreshnik ballistic missile system to Belarus, according to a December 30 statement from the Russian Ministry of Defence. Ukrainian analysts argue the claim lacks credibility, warning that if true, the move would sharply escalate nuclear risks near NATO’s eastern flank.

Russia’s Ministry of Defence announced on December 30, 2025, that it had forward-deployed its new Oreshnik nuclear-capable ballistic missile system to Belarus, a move Moscow framed as part of its deepening military integration with Minsk. Ukrainian defense analysts and open-source intelligence observers, however, say the official video released by Russia fails to show any missile launcher, raising doubts about whether the system is actually operational on Belarusian soil.
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The video released by the Russian Ministry of Defence shows military vehicles moving along snow-covered forest roads, troops setting up camouflage netting, and officers declaring the system on combat alert. (Picture source: Russian MoD)

The video released by the Russian Ministry of Defence shows military vehicles moving along snow-covered forest roads, troops setting up camouflage netting, and officers declaring the system on combat alert. However, no Oreshnik launcher is visible. Only three support vehicles appear: an armored escort vehicle based on the Ural-63095 Typhoon platform, a command or operational support vehicle, and a communications truck. All are visually similar to logistical elements of the Yars strategic missile system, highlighting a likely technological continuity between the two programs. The presence of approximately 70 troops is also insufficient to represent a fully operational missile unit.

A fully operational Oreshnik unit would typically consist of several road-mobile TELs (Transporter-Erector-Launchers) capable of deploying discreetly across various terrains, supported by a mobile command post, communications systems, logistical and maintenance vehicles, and a sizable technical team responsible for missile handling, targeting, and field operations. This type of structure enables autonomous operations, rapid repositioning, and launch capability in degraded environments, reinforcing the system’s strategic mobility and survivability.

Technically, Oreshnik is a two-stage, solid-fuel ballistic missile derived from RS-24 Yars and RS-26 Rubezh technology. It is estimated to have an operational range between 3,000 and 5,500 kilometers and terminal speeds exceeding Mach 10, making interception highly difficult. The system is capable of carrying up to six low- to medium-yield MIRV nuclear warheads or, in conventional configuration, reentry vehicles equipped with submunitions designed to neutralize large-area targets such as airbases, logistics hubs, or integrated air defense systems.

The Oreshnik was first observed in combat conditions on November 21, 2024, during a Russian strike on the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. Analysis of the strike suggests it was likely an operational test using inert or demonstration warheads. The system's performance, high mobility, and ability to operate from dispersed positions offer Russia a rapid-strike capability adaptable to escalation control scenarios.

Strategically, the announced deployment in Belarus is part of a broader effort to reintroduce land-based intermediate-range missile systems in Europe, outside any arms control framework. It comes amid growing Western military support to Ukraine and deteriorating Russia-NATO relations. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, a staunch ally of the Kremlin, has presented the move as a response to Western military pressure. He previously stated that no more than a dozen Oreshnik systems would be stationed in Belarus.

At present, the Russian announcement appears more like a political and informational demonstration than an actual operational deployment. The available footage suggests that only support elements have been transferred so far, while the missile launchers themselves may not arrive in Belarus until 2026 or later. Nevertheless, the strategic signal is clear: even without a full deployment, the projection of such a capability forces adversaries to reassess their defense posture, highlighting Russia’s use of ambiguity and nuclear signaling to influence the regional balance of power.