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US Expresses Concern Over Pakistan's Development of Long-Range Ballistic Missiles.
During a speech delivered on December 19 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Jon Finer, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor, described Pakistan’s ballistic missile program as an "emerging threat" to the United States. He highlighted that Pakistan is developing advanced missile technologies, such as high-powered rocket engines, which could eventually enable Islamabad to strike targets well beyond its region, potentially including the U.S. territory. This statement underscores the growing strain in U.S.-Pakistan relations, already fraught with tensions exacerbated by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 and Washington's closer strategic alignment with India.
The Shaheen-III long-range ballistic missile (Picture source: IISS)
Pakistan’s ballistic missile arsenal, traditionally focused on regional deterrence against India, has undergone significant modernization in recent years. Among its systems, the Shaheen-III, still in development, is the longest-range missile in Pakistan’s inventory, with a range of 2,750 kilometers.
Designed to target strategic areas such as India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands, this two-stage, solid-fueled missile can carry both nuclear and conventional warheads. Its mobility, provided by a Chinese transporter-erector-launcher, enhances its strategic flexibility. Speculation suggests it may eventually be equipped with multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) to counter missile defenses. This modernization effort is bolstered by close technical cooperation with China and past collaborations with North Korea and Iran.
Despite these advancements, U.S. officials assess that Pakistan’s ability to develop intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of targeting the U.S. homeland remains years away. However, they express concern over the broader implications of Pakistan’s efforts for regional and global stability. On December 18, a day before Finer’s speech, the U.S. State Department imposed sanctions on four Pakistani entities, including the state-owned National Development Complex, which plays a central role in missile development. Three additional entities were sanctioned for supplying critical materials for the program. These measures aim to curb the proliferation of missile technologies, although U.S. proposals for confidence-building measures, such as telemetry data sharing and test range limitations, were rejected by Islamabad.
The Pakistani Foreign Ministry, in a statement issued on December 19, neither confirmed nor denied the development of long-range ballistic missiles but defended its strategic capabilities as essential for safeguarding sovereignty and maintaining peace in South Asia. The ministry also accused the U.S. of discriminatory practices undermining nonproliferation efforts and exacerbating regional military imbalances.
This development signals a potential shift in Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence doctrine, historically focused on countering India. Such advancements may indicate ambitions to extend its strategic reach beyond the region, potentially complicating global nonproliferation efforts and contributing to a broader arms race. Meanwhile, India continues to develop its long-range missile systems, including the Agni-V with a range exceeding 5,200 kilometers, and is working on the Agni-VI to counter China’s capabilities.
U.S. accusations regarding Pakistan’s missile program highlight a significant decline in bilateral relations once characterized by strategic cooperation. These revelations and subsequent sanctions intensify geopolitical tensions in South Asia, raising questions about Islamabad’s long-term strategic goals. As mutual distrust deepens, the prospect of a broader arms race threatens to reshape the regional and global strategic balance.