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US Intelligence Warns North Korea Could Field 50 ICBMs Capable of Hitting US by 2035.
The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) released on 13 May 2025 an assessment forecasting that North Korea could expand its arsenal of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to 50 by 2035, a development that would challenge current American missile defense capabilities. The report highlights the continued advancements in Pyongyang’s missile program, which have drawn renewed scrutiny from Washington as it considers further defensive measures.
Estimates indicate that North Korea operates over 17 ICBM launchers across multiple designs, including the Hwasong-14, -15, -17, and -18 models, with the Hwasong-19 in active development. (Picture source: KNCA)
North Korea, which is currently estimated to possess 10 or fewer operational ground-based ICBMs, has already demonstrated systems with the ability to reach the entire U.S. mainland. The DIA defines an ICBM as a ground-launched missile with a range exceeding 5,500 kilometers (3,417 miles), often equipped with nuclear warheads. The introduction of solid-fueled models such as the Hwasong-18 and the recently tested Hwasong-19 represents a shift in the regime’s capabilities, allowing for reduced launch times and increased deployment flexibility. Unlike their liquid-fueled predecessors, solid-fueled missiles are less reliant on pre-launch fueling procedures and are more difficult to detect, complicating interception efforts.
This shift has placed the U.S. Ground-based Midcourse Defense (GMD) system under greater pressure. GMD, which includes 64 interceptor silos located in Alaska and California, is designed to intercept incoming missiles during their midcourse flight phase. While the system is optimized for small-scale threats, its effectiveness is questioned in scenarios involving multiple simultaneous launches. Analysts, including Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, have noted that each missile ideally requires four interceptors, which could quickly deplete the system’s capacity during a high-volume attack.
General Gregory Guillot, commander of U.S. Northern Command and NORAD, testified before Congress to highlight this evolving threat. He pointed out that North Korea’s missile development has moved from testing to production and deployment, marking a new phase in the program’s operational timeline. This transition suggests an intention to establish a sustained and deployable missile force rather than relying solely on demonstration capabilities.
Adding to the challenge is North Korea’s development of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). Though not included in the current DIA missile count, these systems could offer the regime additional launch options from dispersed and mobile platforms. In 2023, North Korea revealed a submarine designed to carry and launch ballistic missiles, indicating diversification in delivery methods. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists warned that SLBMs could complicate defensive planning due to their mobility and the difficulty of tracking them in advance.
In response, the Trump administration has revisited plans for a national missile defense program known as the “Golden Dome,” inspired by Israel’s Iron Dome. This system aims to address not only traditional ICBMs but also emerging threats such as hypersonic and cruise missiles. The program reflects a growing consensus that GMD may not suffice under future scenarios involving increased launch numbers or faster, lower-flying projectiles.
Current and Future Missile Threats to the US according to US Defense Intelligence Agency (Picture source: DIA)
A visit by U.S. Secretary of the Army Dan Driscoll to Fort Greely further highlighted efforts to adapt to new challenges. During the visit, a simulated ICBM attack was conducted to assess and refine the readiness and tactics of missile defense crews. The exercise underlined concerns about system capacity and response speed in the event of a high-volume missile strike.
Despite decades of sanctions and diplomatic isolation, North Korea has not ceased its strategic weapons development. The country is believed to hold approximately 50 nuclear warheads and continues to pursue the means to deliver them with growing precision and reach. President Donald Trump, in a January executive order, described missile threats, including those from ballistic and hypersonic systems, as the most pressing risk to national security.
Insights from the Military Balance 2025 report provide additional context on the pace and ambition of North Korea’s missile program. Pyongyang has pursued not only new missile designs but also efforts to harden and diversify its launch capabilities. In November 2024, it tested a second solid-propellant ICBM design. The country is also exploring mobile basing options, such as rail-mounted and potentially sea-based systems, to increase launch survivability.
Estimates indicate that North Korea operates over 17 ICBM launchers across multiple designs, including the Hwasong-14, -15, -17, and -18 models, with the Hwasong-19 in active development. While these systems are not yet fully deployed, their quantity and variety reflect a deliberate plan to expand and diversify the country’s long-range strike capabilities. The strategic missile force, reportedly staffed by around 10,000 personnel, remains central to this effort.
Although North Korea has paraded warhead mock-ups and conducted test launches, there is no confirmed evidence that it has successfully integrated nuclear warheads with its long-range missile systems. Nonetheless, the consistent testing, development, and increased international cooperation, particularly with Russia, signal a future in which North Korea's ICBM force could become more credible and persistent.
This projected increase to 50 ICBMs, coupled with technological improvements and diversified launch options, would place additional stress on existing U.S. defenses. The potential for saturation tactics, where multiple missiles are launched to overwhelm interceptors, could undermine current defense architectures unless expanded or restructured.
North Korea’s missile program has advanced from sporadic provocations to a more structured and sustained strategy aimed at enhancing deterrence. The combination of new missile systems, growing inventory, and dispersed basing options will continue to complicate regional and strategic planning. For the U.S. and its allies, the challenge will be to adapt both technologically and operationally to meet a threat that is increasingly multifaceted and persistent.