Analysis Hypersonic Missile Race: Russia, China, and the US in the Battle for Speed.

A new frontier in military technology is reshaping global security dynamics as hypersonic missiles emerge as the centerpiece of a high-stakes arms race between Russia, China, and the United States. These advanced weapons, capable of traveling at speeds greater than Mach 5 while maneuvering unpredictably, alter modern warfare's strategic calculus. Their development has prompted a rush to innovate and countermeasure, with NATO allies scrambling to adapt to this game-changing threat. 
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A rendering of Russia's Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle in flight. Capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 27, the Avangard is designed to evade missile defenses with its unpredictable trajectory, solidifying Russia's lead in hypersonic weaponry.  (Picture source: Sputnik)

Russia has positioned itself as a leader in hypersonic weaponry, boasting systems it claims are already operational. The Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV), for instance, is mounted on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and reportedly capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 27. Moscow asserts that Avangard’s ability to maneuver during flight makes it virtually impossible to intercept, providing a decisive advantage in bypassing traditional missile defense systems. 

In addition to Avangard, Russia has developed the Kinzhal missile, an air-launched system deployed from MiG-31K fighter jets. The Kinzhal, with a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers, has been employed in combat during the Ukraine war, signaling its operational readiness. Another key program is the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile, designed for ship-launched deployment against naval and land-based targets. Tests have demonstrated Zircon’s speed exceeding Mach 8, and Russian officials claim it has already been integrated into the navy. 

China's DF-17 hypersonic missile system mounted on a mobile launcher during a military parade. Equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle, the DF-17 has a range of approximately 2,000 kilometers, making it a key component of China’s regional strike capabilities. (Picture source China MoD)

China is also accelerating its hypersonic ambitions, leveraging its vast industrial resources to close the gap with Russia and the U.S. During its testing phase, the DF-ZF, known as WU-14, has been a cornerstone of Beijing’s efforts. Mounted on the DF-17 medium-range ballistic missile, the DF-ZF offers a range of about 2,000 kilometers, representing a serious challenge to U.S. bases and naval assets in the Indo-Pacific. 

Another key development in China’s arsenal is the DF-27, an intercontinental hypersonic missile reportedly capable of striking targets up to 8,000 kilometers away. Although less publicized, it underscores Beijing’s intent to expand its strategic reach. Complementing these systems is the Starry Sky-2, a scramjet-powered vehicle that represents a breakthrough in hypersonic cruise missile technology. This program could pave the way for a new generation of precision-strike weapons. 

For China, hypersonics are integral to its anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy. By targeting U.S. carrier strike groups and key installations, Beijing aims to assert dominance in contested regions like the South China Sea and deter intervention in a potential Taiwan conflict. 

Meanwhile, the United States is working to regain its footing in the hypersonic race after initially lagging behind its rivals. The Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW), developed by Lockheed Martin, is a hypersonic glide vehicle designed to achieve speeds above Mach 20. Although the program has faced testing delays, it remains a priority for U.S. military planners. 

The Conventional Prompt Strike (CPS) initiative, intended for deployment on Zumwalt-class destroyers and Virginia-class submarines, represents another key effort. This program seeks to provide the U.S. with the capability to strike any target in the world within minutes. Additionally, DARPA’s Tactical Boost Glide (TBG) program aims to develop air-launched hypersonic systems for tactical and operational use. 

For Washington, hypersonic weapons are seen as essential for neutralizing time-sensitive targets and maintaining strategic parity with adversaries. However, their high development costs and technological hurdles have slowed deployment compared to Russia and China. 

As these powers advance their hypersonic programs, NATO is scrambling to develop effective countermeasures. Traditional missile defenses are largely ineffective against hypersonic weapons due to their speed and maneuverability, necessitating innovative approaches. Upgraded early warning systems, including space-based sensors, are critical to tracking these fast-moving threats. 

Directed energy weapons, such as high-powered lasers, are emerging as a potential solution to neutralize hypersonic missiles during their glide phase. The U.S. and European allies are heavily investing in these technologies, aiming for deployment by the late 2020s. To address the hypersonic challenge, NATO is also enhancing its Integrated Air and Missile Defense (IAMD) systems, including adaptations of the U.S. Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense platform. 

A conceptual illustration of the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) in action. Designed by the United States, the GPI aims to intercept hypersonic threats during their glide phase, providing a critical defense against advanced missile systems. (Picture source Northrop Grumann)

Additionally, the U.S. Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) program aims to intercept hypersonic missiles during their most vulnerable stage, offering hope for a robust defense against these emerging threats. 

The Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI) represents a cutting-edge solution to counter the growing threat of hypersonic missiles. Unlike traditional missile defense systems, which are optimized to target ballistic missiles in their predictable flight paths, the GPI is specifically designed to engage hypersonic glide vehicles during the critical glide phase of their trajectory. This phase, characterized by high speeds and unpredictable maneuvers, presents unique challenges that demand advanced tracking and targeting capabilities.

The GPI program, spearheaded by the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) in collaboration with industry leaders like Raytheon and Northrop Grumman, leverages next-generation sensors, enhanced propulsion systems, and advanced seeker technology to neutralize hypersonic threats. Set to integrate with existing missile defense platforms like the Aegis Combat System, the GPI will play a pivotal role in safeguarding critical infrastructure and allied forces from emerging hypersonic weapons.

The hypersonic race reflects a broader struggle for military dominance in an increasingly multipolar world. As Russia, China, and the U.S. push the boundaries of missile technology, the strategic landscape grows more volatile. While these weapons offer unparalleled speed and precision, they also heighten the risk of miscalculation and escalation in conflicts. NATO’s ability to innovate and adapt will be critical in maintaining global stability as the race for speed continues unabated.