Analysis: Russia’s Hypersonic Missiles Cannot Be Countered by Current US and European Air Defenses.

Due to the new threats posed by hypersonic ballistic missiles, particularly those that Russia could deploy to target Ukraine and potentially Europe, the urgency of developing effective countermeasures has become critical. With their extreme speed and unpredictable flight paths, these weapons remain unstoppable by today’s air defense systems. No existing system can reliably intercept and destroy hypersonic ballistic missiles, leaving nations vulnerable to a new class of advanced weaponry. As the global arms race intensifies, countries like the United States and key European nations focus on detecting and countering this emerging threat.
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A Russian Air Force Mikoyan MiG-31K fighter jet carrying the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile. (Picture source: Wikimedia)

Hypersonic ballistic missiles, capable of traveling at speeds greater than Mach 5 and maneuvering unpredictably, expose critical gaps in missile defense systems. While advanced radar systems have proven effective at detecting and tracking these high-speed threats, no current air defense system can intercept or destroy them. Modern radars, such as the U.S. AN/TPY-2 and SPY-6, are specifically designed to detect and track hypersonic targets from long ranges. The AN/TPY-2, a key component of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, is capable of tracking both ballistic missiles and hypersonic glide vehicles.

Similarly, the SPY-6 radar, integrated with the Aegis Weapon System, enhances multi-target tracking capabilities, offering a significant upgrade for naval defenses. Space-based systems, including the U.S. Space-Based Infrared System (SBIRS) and the emerging Hypersonic and Ballistic Tracking Space Sensors (HBTSS), complement these ground-based capabilities by providing persistent, global surveillance and early warning of missile threats. However, detection alone is insufficient without the development of interceptors capable of neutralizing these advanced weapons.

In Europe, systems like Israel's Green Pine radar—adopted as part of Germany's Arrow 3 missile defense acquisition—are being leveraged for early warning and tracking of high-speed threats. Additionally, Sweden’s Saab-developed Giraffe 4A radar highlights how European nations are investing in versatile detection systems. These capabilities, however, only address one part of the problem. Detecting a hypersonic missile is not the same as intercepting it.

The inability to intercept hypersonic ballistic missiles is exacerbated by the rapid development of these weapons by nations such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran. Russia has already deployed hypersonic systems like the Avangard glide vehicle and the Kinzhal missile, which have been touted as capable of evading all known missile defense systems. These weapons have been integrated into its military arsenal, with the Kinzhal reportedly used during the conflict in Ukraine.

China is developing its own hypersonic arsenal, including the DF-ZF glide vehicle and other advanced systems aimed at bypassing U.S. and allied defenses. North Korea has recently tested hypersonic missiles, signaling its ambitions to incorporate such technologies into its strategic weapons program. Meanwhile, Iran has unveiled prototypes of hypersonic missiles, further raising concerns about regional stability and global proliferation.

Northrop Grumman is set to produce the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), a groundbreaking defensive system designed to counter hypersonic missile threats. (Picture source: Northrop Grumman)

The United States has taken a leading role in developing advanced interception technologies to address the hypersonic missile challenge. One of the most promising programs is the Glide Phase Interceptor (GPI), specifically designed to neutralize hypersonic glide vehicles during their glide phase—the most vulnerable segment of their flight. This phase occurs after the missile has re-entered the atmosphere but before it reaches its terminal trajectory, providing a critical window for interception. The GPI is being developed to integrate seamlessly with the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense system, leveraging its advanced radar and fire-control systems for deployment from naval platforms.

The GPI represents a significant technological leap in hypersonic defense, utilizing advanced propulsion, guidance, and sensor technologies to engage maneuvering hypersonic targets that conventional missile defenses cannot counter. Initial development has progressed steadily, but operational capability is not expected until the latter half of the decade, reflecting the complexity of the challenges involved.

In parallel, the U.S. is also advancing directed energy solutions, such as high-energy lasers and microwave systems, aimed at disabling hypersonic weapons during their boost phase, where they are still accelerating and most vulnerable. While these technologies remain experimental in 2024, they offer a promising complementary layer of defense that could significantly enhance U.S. capabilities against hypersonic threats in the future.

In Europe, collaborative efforts to address the hypersonic missile threat are gaining momentum, with the TWISTER (Timely Warning and Interception with Space-based Theater Surveillance) program standing out as a flagship initiative. Supported by the European Defence Fund, TWISTER is part of the Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) framework and aims to develop a next-generation missile defense system capable of addressing a broad spectrum of advanced threats, including hypersonic glide vehicles, maneuvering reentry vehicles, and other advanced ballistic threats.

The TWISTER program emphasizes a multi-layered defense approach that integrates space-based and ground-based components. One of its core objectives is to develop a state-of-the-art interceptor capable of engaging hypersonic threats in both endo-atmospheric (within the Earth's atmosphere) and exo-atmospheric (outside the atmosphere) flight phases. This new interceptor, tentatively referred to as the "Endo-Exo Interceptor," will feature advanced propulsion and guidance systems to address the speed and maneuverability of hypersonic missiles.

Key to the TWISTER program is its reliance on space-based theater surveillance. The program envisions deploying a network of advanced sensors in orbit to provide persistent tracking and early warning of missile threats. These sensors will complement existing terrestrial radar systems, significantly enhancing Europe's ability to detect and monitor hypersonic weapons during all phases of flight.

France leads the TWISTER program, with participation from Germany, Italy, Finland, Spain, and the Netherlands, reflecting the EU’s commitment to pooling resources and expertise for collective security. The program’s development phase is well underway to achieve operational capability in the 2030s.

Complementing TWISTER is the HYDEF (Hypersonic Defence Interceptor) program, which focuses specifically on developing an endo-atmospheric interceptor for terminal-phase interception of hypersonic threats. Together, these programs represent Europe’s proactive response to the growing capabilities of nations like Russia and China in the hypersonic domain. They also underscore the EU's determination to develop indigenous technologies that reduce reliance on external defense systems and enhance regional security.

Germany will receive the Arrow 3 missile defense system, while the next-generation Arrow 4 will feature capabilities to intercept hypersonic missiles. (Picture source Is Israeli MoD)

Germany’s acquisition of the Arrow 3 air defense missile system from Israel adds an important, albeit interim, layer of defense for Europe. The system, designed for exo-atmospheric interception of ballistic missiles, provides Germany with advanced capabilities to defend against high-altitude threats. While Arrow 3 offers limited potential to counter some hypersonic missiles, it remains fundamentally a ballistic missile defense system. This highlights the pressing need for Europe to accelerate the development of dedicated hypersonic countermeasures to address emerging threats fully.

Israel and the United States have already embarked on developing the Arrow 4, an advanced upgrade to the Arrow family of missile defense systems. Arrow 4 aims to bridge the gap by offering enhanced capabilities to intercept next-generation threats, including hypersonic glide vehicles. Designed to replace the older Arrow 2 system and work alongside Arrow 3, the Arrow 4 is being engineered with more sophisticated propulsion, maneuverability, and advanced targeting technologies. Its ability to engage hypersonic missiles during the glide phase or high-speed terminal phase represents a significant step forward in missile defense.

Although Arrow 4 remains under development, its planned capabilities align with Germany’s long-term defense strategy, suggesting that it could eventually become a cornerstone of Europe’s hypersonic missile defense architecture. By adopting and potentially co-developing such cutting-edge systems, Germany and its European allies are positioning themselves to address the growing missile threat from state actors such as Russia, China, and North Korea. Arrow 4’s anticipated deployment later in the decade further underscores the ongoing efforts to enhance collective security and technological independence within NATO and the European Union.

Despite these advancements, hypersonic missiles' unpredictable trajectories and extreme speeds leave defense planners with little margin for error. Tracking systems provide early warning, but the response time for interception remains critically short. Integrating artificial intelligence into missile defense systems is being explored to enhance real-time tracking and response capabilities. Additionally, reliance on space-based detection is expected to grow, as nations expand satellite networks to provide persistent global surveillance of missile activities.

While detection capabilities have seen significant progress, the absence of proven hypersonic interception technologies underscores the urgency of continued innovation. As hypersonic weapons proliferate, international collaboration and sustained investment in advanced technologies will be essential to safeguarding global security against this unprecedented threat.