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Belarus Hosts Russian Nuclear Weapons and Prepares for Oreshnik Ballistic Missile Deployment.
Amid heightened international tensions fueled by the conflict in Ukraine, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko announced that his country is hosting dozens of Russian tactical nuclear weapons and is preparing to deploy the new Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile. Reported by AP News on December 10, 2024, this statement, made during discussions on strengthened security guarantees between Minsk and Moscow, highlights an increasingly strategic partnership between the two allies in their stance against the West.
Belarus notably possesses Russian Iskander-M launchers and missiles capable of being equipped with nuclear warheads (Picture source: Vitaly V. Kuzmin)
This nuclear deployment aligns with a significant revision of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, which now explicitly includes Belarus under Moscow’s "nuclear umbrella." This marks a historical shift for Minsk, which relinquished its nuclear arsenal following the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. At that time, Belarus transferred its nuclear weapons to Russia and joined the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) as a non-nuclear state. However, recent events, including a 2022 constitutional referendum that removed Belarus’ nuclear-free status, have paved the way for this return to hosting nuclear capabilities.
President Lukashenko stated that these weapons were transferred discreetly, avoiding detection by Western intelligence agencies. He emphasized their defensive role against potential threats, particularly from Belarus’ borders. This strategy relies on Iskander ballistic missiles, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, as well as fighter jets equipped with nuclear bombs. These systems enable rapid targeting of potential positions in Ukraine or NATO member states, enhancing the deterrence capabilities of the Russo-Belarusian alliance.
In addition, Lukashenko revealed preparations are underway for the deployment of the Oreshnik hypersonic ballistic missile in 2025. Capable of carrying multiple warheads and reaching speeds exceeding Mach 10, this system is designed to evade missile defense systems, offering Russia an unparalleled strategic advantage. Russian President Vladimir Putin has highlighted the conventional power of the Oreshnik, stating its destructive capability rivals that of nuclear strikes. While control of these weapons will remain with Moscow, Minsk will be involved in selecting targets, further integrating the military strategies of the two nations.
The Oreshnik missile represents a notable development in Russia's strategic arsenal. With hypersonic capabilities and an estimated range of 1,000 to 5,500 kilometers, it can strike critical infrastructure across Europe and parts of Asia. Equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), it can deliver conventional or nuclear warheads to several targets simultaneously with precision. First used operationally in November 2024 during the conflict in Ukraine, the missile demonstrated its strategic potential in a strike against an industrial facility. Although the warheads used were inert, the kinetic energy generated by the hypersonic speed caused significant damage, showcasing its effectiveness as both a tactical weapon and a tool of strategic deterrence.
Lukashenko also noted that Belarus has retained dozens of Soviet-era sites suitable for deploying such systems. These facilities, combined with local production of transport vehicles for ballistic missiles, underline Minsk’s commitment to strengthening its role within its strategic partnership with Moscow. This alliance, formalized through a recently signed mutual security treaty, aims to deter any external aggression, particularly from NATO.
The deployment of these systems, however, raises international concerns about regional stability and the risk of military escalation. While Moscow and Minsk assert that the measures are purely defensive, they represent a substantial increase in strategic pressure on Eastern Europe. Additionally, the recent lowering of Russia’s threshold for nuclear weapon use amplifies fears of potential conflict involving weapons of mass destruction.
The hosting of Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus and the planned deployment of Oreshnik missiles mark a significant evolution in regional security dynamics. For Minsk, these developments strengthen its strategic position alongside Moscow but also pose questions about its long-term sovereignty and security. As Belarus becomes an integral part of Russia’s nuclear strategy, these actions underscore growing tensions among major powers, signaling considerable challenges for international stability and security.
Belarus’ interest in hosting advanced missile systems such as the Oreshnik lies in its strategic value. By accommodating these advanced systems, Belarus enhances its military alliance with Russia, securing stronger defense guarantees amid growing tensions with NATO and Western nations. These weapons provide Minsk with a deterrent against potential foreign intervention and bolster its geopolitical leverage in international negotiations.
For European nations and NATO, the deployment of Oreshnik missiles in Belarus represents a significant escalation of threats near their eastern borders. These missiles, with their ability to carry nuclear warheads and strike at intermediate ranges, pose a risk to critical European infrastructure, altering the regional strategic balance. This development compels NATO to reassess its defense mechanisms and bolster its deterrent capabilities to counter this emerging threat. Furthermore, it could intensify an arms race in the region, increasing the potential for misunderstandings and unintended confrontations.