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China Draws Inspiration from Russian War Tactics in Ukraine via Belarus.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has shown growing interest in the military strategies implemented by Russian forces in Ukraine, observing these developments through a unique intermediary: the Belarusian armed forces. In October, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) highlighted the ongoing military cooperation between China and Belarus, suggesting that Beijing may be examining operational lessons learned by the Belarusian army in connection with the conflict in Ukraine.
This growing partnership shows China, like other Central Asian nations, seeking to leverage Belarusian expertise in essential hybrid warfare tactics, such as drone use, trench clearing, and urban assaults (Picture source: China Military)
According to Major General Vadim Denisenko, Commander of Belarusian Special Operations Forces, China has recently increased its military exchanges with Belarus. Denisenko stated that Chinese military representatives, along with delegations from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, have participated in military exercises in Belarus over the past three to four months. This growing military partnership indicates that China, like other Central Asian nations, aims to benefit from Belarusian experiences in hybrid warfare, including the use of drones, trench clearing, and urban assault techniques, all of which have become essential in contemporary conflict.
China’s interest in these competencies points to a strategy of observing and assimilating Russian methods of warfare. It is likely that Beijing, despite not being directly involved in the Ukrainian conflict, views this approach as an opportunity to refine its understanding of hybrid warfare and military response capabilities. Russian influence in Belarus, historically strong, has intensified with the war in Ukraine, making Belarus a pivotal actor in disseminating Russian military techniques, especially to non-Western allies like China.
Meanwhile, on October 28, related developments indicated that NATO continues to monitor the region closely. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte disclosed that South Korean intelligence had revealed the presence of North Korean units in Russia’s Kursk region, potentially signaling additional military support for the Kremlin. This Sino-Belarusian military cooperation could be seen as part of a broader network of shared military knowledge that extends beyond the Russia-Belarus alliance, incorporating a group of Asian allies and strategic observers aiming to capitalize on Russian military expertise.
Recent events have also underscored an escalation in operations within Ukraine. On the night of October 27-28, Ukrainian forces launched a series of drone attacks targeting Russian infrastructure, including distilleries, to weaken Russian air capabilities. Furthermore, Russian leader Vladimir Putin briefly acknowledged his country’s labor challenges, though he sought to reassure the public by emphasizing Russia’s low unemployment rate and asserted that the national economy could sustain a prolonged war effort.
On the international front, support for Ukraine remains steady, marked by close cooperation among Western allies and ongoing diplomatic initiatives. In another development, Moldova’s Constitutional Court is set to review the results of the October 20 referendum on October 31, highlighting the conflict's role in expanding democratic interests within neighboring states. Meanwhile, Georgia is experiencing civil and political challenges to the results of its 2024 parliamentary elections, reflecting the growing tensions in Russia’s periphery.