Escalation of Conflict Between Israel and Hezbollah: Northern Arrows Operation at Heart of Tensions.

The conflict between Israel and the Lebanese Hezbollah, supported by Iran, has reached a new level with the launch of the "Northern Arrows" operation by the Israeli army on September 23, 2024. As hostilities intensify, this major military operation aims to neutralize the threat posed by Hezbollah on Israel's northern border.
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Screenshots from video footage of the strikes conducted by Israel on Lebanon on September 23, 2024 (Picture source: X channel @0Informations) 

For several months, tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been increasing, fueled by a series of border incidents and escalating rhetoric on both sides. Hezbollah, a Shiite political-military organization backed by Iran, has intensified its rocket attacks toward northern Israel in support of Hamas in the Gaza Strip. These actions prompted a strong response from the Israeli army, determined to ensure the security of its citizens and neutralize Hezbollah's offensive capabilities.

In recent weeks, exchanges of fire have multiplied. Hezbollah has launched thousands of rockets and drones toward Israeli territory, targeting military installations and civilian areas. Israel, in turn, has conducted targeted airstrikes against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon. The situation reached a critical point on September 23, 2024, when the Israeli army initiated the "Northern Arrows" operation.

This operation, announced by Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, aims to significantly weaken Hezbollah's military capabilities. "The situation requires continuous and intense action on all fronts," Halevi stated. The Israeli air forces have struck over 1,300 targets in Lebanon, including missile launchers, military buildings, and weapons depots. These strikes have affected southern Lebanon, the Bekaa Valley, and, for the first time in years, regions further north such as Mount Lebanon.

Image of a Hezbollah rocket allegedly located in a civilian house in Lebanon (Picture source: IDF)

The primary objective of the "Northern Arrows" operation is to destroy Hezbollah's offensive capabilities and secure Israel's northern border. According to Israeli military sources, Hezbollah was preparing a major offensive called "Conquer the Galilee," aiming to infiltrate Israeli territory and carry out attacks against civilians. The elimination of senior Hezbollah figures, including Ibrahim Aqil, the alleged architect of this plan, is a key component of this strategy.

Israel asserts that it is acting based on precise intelligence to target Hezbollah's military infrastructure while minimizing civilian casualties. Warnings have been sent to civilian populations to evacuate certain areas before the strikes. However, reports indicate difficulties for civilians attempting to leave dangerous zones, with Hezbollah accused of preventing evacuations to use inhabitants as human shields.

The operation also seeks to prevent Hezbollah from strengthening its positions by taking advantage of international attention focused on the conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah, with its military experience and an arsenal estimated at 150,000 rockets and missiles, represents a threat to Israel's security. Israeli strikes aim to degrade its command and control capabilities and reduce its stockpiles of armaments.

In response, Hezbollah has intensified its rocket fire, targeting Israeli northern cities such as Haifa and Kiryat Shmona. Alerts have sounded in several localities, and material damage has been reported. The current escalation raises concerns about a potential expansion of the conflict, with the risk of more direct involvement by Iran and other regional actors.

Map showing the various strikes conducted by Israel on Lebanon since September 23, 2024 (Picture source: LiveuaMap)

The international community is apprehensive about this volatile situation. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres has expressed concern over the escalation of violence and has called for restraint. The United States, an ally of Israel, has announced it is working on "concrete ideas" to restore calm, while Russia has warned of the risk of regional destabilization.

The "Northern Arrows" operation marks a turning point in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. While Israel had previously favored targeted actions to contain the threat, this large-scale offensive demonstrates its determination to eliminate Hezbollah's offensive capabilities. The extent to which this escalation will continue remains uncertain. A ground invasion of Lebanon by Israel is not ruled out, although such an option carries the risk of a prolonged and costly engagement.

Hezbollah faces a dilemma. Despite its arsenal and experience, it is suffering significant losses and sees its capabilities further reduced, especially following last week's explosion of beepers and walkie-talkies. 

In the short term, there is currently no indication that a de-escalation of the conflict is on the horizon, despite international pressure and the growing risks of destruction to Lebanese infrastructure.