Estonia Discusses Multi-Billion Euro Ammunition Aid for Ukraine Seeking Allied Support.

In an interview with Postimees, Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur discussed the possibility of Estonia acquiring €2-3 billion worth of artillery shells and rockets for Ukraine, contingent on financial support from allies. This approach mirrors the Czech ammunition project. At current market rates, the investment could secure 800,000 to 1,200,000 pieces of ammunition.
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155 mm artillery shells. (Picture source rheinmetall.com )

The initiative comes in response to the European Union's shortfall in delivering the promised 1,000,000 shells and the delay in U.S. assistance due to Congressional holdups, which has left Ukraine facing a critical ammunition shortage. This deficit contributed to the strategic setbacks in Avdiivka City and various frontlines. Czech President Petr Pavel announced in February the ambition to deliver up to 800,000 shells to Ukraine, pending the acquisition of necessary partner funds, receiving broad European endorsement.

Pevkur brought Estonia's potential contribution to light at the Ukraine Defense Contact Group meeting on March 19, which saw participation from NATO and 24 other nations.

Estimations by Postimees suggest that with €2-3 billion, Estonia could supply the Ukrainian forces with approximately one million shells and Grad rockets, sufficient to support military efforts until the close of the year.

The Defense Minister indicated Estonia's intention to source munitions primarily from outside Europe, citing confidentiality requests from suppliers. He highlighted the urgent need to procure 155 mm and 152 mm shells, noting competition from Russia for the latter, pursued via Belarus.

Pevkur emphasized the financial challenge of acquiring such a vast array of munitions, including 122 mm rockets for Grad systems, 122 mm artillery shells, and 152 mm and 155 mm shells, pointing out the global market's capacity to fulfill these needs.

He further clarified that Estonia's procurement plans are distinct from the EU's commitment to Ukraine, adding that a collaborative effort with Czech, British, and Estonian resources could potentially equip Ukraine with 2-2.5 million shells within the year, effectively countering Russian artillery strength, pending adequate funding.

This initiative comes against a backdrop of difficult confrontation for Ukraine, where the advantage seems to be tilting in favor of Russian forces. The latter have regained the initiative on the battlefield since the loss of Avdiivka last January. In terms of ammunition, the imbalance is notable: for every shell fired by Ukraine, Russian forces fire five. Indeed, Russia can afford to fire up to 10,000 artillery shells a day, while Ukraine, faced with an ammunition shortage, is limited to just 2,000 shots a day.

Defense News April 2024