Focus | U.S. Intel: China Emerges as a Global Leader in Ballistic Missile Power With More Than 3,000 Missiles.

On December 18, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released its annual report on China's military and security developments, as mandated by Congress. The report provides a detailed overview of China's military advancements, with a particular focus on the People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF), which was established in 2015 to manage the country's land-based missile arsenal. According to the report, China currently possesses a total of 3,100 ballistic missiles under the PLARF's control.
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The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF)'s inventory also includes 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), such as the DF-5, DF-31, and DF-41. (Picture source: Chinese social media)

The Chinese People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) operates with separate command structures for nuclear and conventional missile operations. Nuclear missions are directly managed by the Central Military Commission (CMC), while conventional operations are likely overseen by Theater Commanders. The force is organized into seven combat missile bases, each overseeing six to eight brigades, and three support bases responsible for warhead handling, infrastructure development, training, and missile testing. In total, the PLARF comprises at least 40 brigades.

The modernization of China's missile arsenal is a significant aspect highlighted in the report. The PLARF's inventory includes 900 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) designed for tactical strikes over relatively short distances. This category includes the DF-15, which has a range of up to 900 kilometers, and its variants such as the DF-15C, intended for targeting hardened facilities, and the DF-11, with a range of approximately 600 kilometers. These SRBMs are typically road-mobile, allowing for rapid deployment and flexibility in targeting regional threats like airfields, bunkers, and command centers.

In addition to SRBMs, the PLARF operates 1,300 medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs), which extend China's strike capabilities. Notable among these are the DF-21D, capable of targeting moving ships at long range, and the DF-17, used to launch the DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle. The DF-ZF is equipped with a conventional warhead, although U.S. intelligence assessments suggest it may also be nuclear-capable. These MRBMs are intended to enhance precision strike capabilities and maintain deterrence by targeting distant military and strategic sites. The DF-ZF offers increased maneuverability and is designed to evade missile defense systems.

The PLARF also maintains an inventory of 500 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) with ranges extending up to 4,000 kilometers. This allows China to strike distant targets, including U.S. military assets in the Indo-Pacific region, and provides more strategic targeting options compared to MRBMs. Prominent systems in this category include the DF-26, which can carry either nuclear or conventional warheads and is replacing older DF-21 models as the primary dual-role missile for land-attack and anti-ship missions. The DF-27 missile, with a range of 5,000 to 8,000 kilometers and equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle payload, is designed to strike high-value targets such as Guam. Additionally, the PLARF is exploring the development of conventionally armed intercontinental-range missiles capable of targeting U.S. territories like Hawaii and Alaska.

Furthermore, the PLARF possesses 400 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCMs), including the CJ-10 and CJ-100, which have operational ranges between 1,500 and 2,000 kilometers. On November 17, 2024, updated data was provided on China's Dongfeng-100 (DF-100) supersonic cruise missile, also known as the Changjian-100 (CJ-100). This land-based system reportedly has a range between 3,000 and 4,000 kilometers and a sustained flight speed of Mach 4. Designed for precision strikes, the CJ-100 is capable of targeting various types of installations and structures while flying at low altitudes to evade traditional missile defense systems. These missiles provide China with precision strike capabilities for targeting critical infrastructure and military locations at long ranges.

According to the report, China currently possesses a total of 3,100 ballistic missiles under the PLARF's control. (Picture source: US DoD)

The People's Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF)'s inventory also includes 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), such as the DF-5 (CSS-4), DF-31 (CSS-10), and DF-41 (CSS-20). These missiles are capable of delivering nuclear warheads over distances exceeding 11,000 kilometers. The DF-41, a road-mobile ICBM with a range surpassing 11,000 kilometers, can target most locations within the continental United States and is equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs). The DF-41 is China's newest addition to its nuclear arsenal, with an estimated range between 12,000 and 15,000 kilometers, potentially making it the world's longest-range missile. With approximately 550 launchers, these Chinese ICBMs are critical for maintaining strategic deterrence and feature various configurations, including silo-based, road-mobile, and potentially rail-mobile launchers.

In comparison, as of early 2024, the United States operates 400 deployed LGM-30G Minuteman III ICBMs in ground silos and 192 Trident II D5 submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) aboard Ohio-class submarines. Russia maintains a total of 521 ICBMs, encompassing both land-based and sea-based systems. The United Kingdom possesses four Vanguard-class submarines, each equipped with 16 Trident II SLBMs, totaling 64 missiles. France deploys four Triomphant-class submarines, each armed with 16 M51 SLBMs, also totaling 64 missiles. India has operational Agni-V ICBMs and is developing K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missiles.

The report notes that the PLARF has completed the construction of three solid-propellant ICBM silo fields containing at least 300 silos, with some already loaded with missiles. The force is developing new ICBMs equipped with MIRVs, which will require additional nuclear warheads. Satellite imagery analysis indicates the assembly of at least 72 DF-26 transporter-erector-launchers (TELs) between 2023 and 2024, reflecting growth in regional strike capabilities.

Operational activities of the PLARF demonstrate improved readiness, with the force conducting live-fire drills and joint exercises. Notably, the "Joint Sword" operation in 2023 simulated coordinated strikes involving land-based aircraft, the PLAN’s CV-17 Shandong carrier group, and the PLARF in a scenario simulating Taiwan encirclement. Other exercises tested anti-submarine warfare and vessel-aircraft integration, supporting counter-intervention objectives. The PLARF's missile forces have also engaged in mock strikes targeting airfields, bunkers, aircraft, and ships.

In September 2024, the PLARF conducted an intercontinental ballistic missile test, launching a missile from Hainan Island into the South Pacific. This marked China’s first ICBM test in the Pacific Ocean since 1980, with the missile covering approximately 12,000 kilometers. The test underscored China’s capability to conduct long-range strikes. Following this event, President Xi Jinping inspected a PLARF brigade, highlighting the need to enhance the force’s deterrence and combat readiness.

The report concludes that the PLARF’s modernization aligns with China’s stated objectives of improving nuclear deterrence, strengthening intermediate and long-range strike forces, and building a modernized missile force. These efforts facilitate long-range precision strike capabilities and expand the scope of China’s strategic and conventional deterrence within and beyond the Indo-Pacific region.

The report concludes that the PLARF’s modernization aligns with China’s stated objectives of improving nuclear deterrence, strengthening intermediate and long-range strike forces, and building a modernized missile force. (Picture source: US DoD)