Focus: US and Japan Forge Powerful Defense Alliance to Counter China’s Rising Threats.

The United States and Japan have taken a significant step to reinforce their security alliance in the face of an increasingly severe strategic and nuclear threat environment. On December 26, 2024, the U.S. Department of Defense announced the formulation of the Guidelines for Extended Deterrence, a document aimed at enhancing the ability of both nations to prevent potential adversaries from taking aggressive actions, such as launching an attack or starting a conflict, while promoting stability in the Indo-Pacific region.
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U.S. Marines from the Headquarters Squadron, Marine Corps Air Station Iwakuni, and members of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s 13th Brigade, Middle Army, provide security using a Komatsu Light Armored Vehicle at MCAS Iwakuni, Japan, on October 29, 2024, during Exercise Keen Sword. (Picture source: U.S. DoD)

This concept, known as deterrence, is a strategic approach in defense and security that seeks to dissuade adversaries from acting by convincing them that the costs or consequences of aggression would far outweigh any potential benefits. Deterrence can involve threats of retaliation (deterrence by punishment) or measures that make success for the adversary highly unlikely (deterrence by denial). Extended deterrence specifically refers to a nation’s commitment to defend its allies, leveraging a combination of military capabilities—including nuclear and conventional forces—and strategic policies.

The new guidelines are the result of extensive discussions conducted through the Extended Deterrence Dialogue (EDD), a forum that has allowed the two nations to assess evolving threats and develop coordinated responses. This framework not only strengthens existing consultation and communication protocols but also introduces measures designed to ensure a unified and credible approach to any potential crisis.

A key focus of the guidelines is the importance of strategic messaging, a tool designed to project the Alliance’s readiness and resolve to deter any aggressive actions by adversaries. This aspect underscores the critical role of perception in maintaining peace, as clear communication of the consequences of hostile actions is essential for preventing conflicts.

The document also reaffirms the United States’ commitment to its extended security guarantees, which include the provision of a nuclear umbrella, advanced conventional forces, and missile defense systems. These capabilities are further integrated with Japan’s growing defense infrastructure, ensuring a robust and comprehensive deterrent posture. Japan’s active contributions, including advancements in missile defense, surveillance technologies, and force readiness, are emphasized as key components of the Alliance’s overall strategy.

The announcement of the Guidelines for Extended Deterrence comes amid growing concerns over China’s increasingly assertive military posture in the Indo-Pacific, particularly near Japan. China has escalated its activities in the East China Sea, including frequent incursions by military aircraft and vessels into Japan’s territorial waters and airspace around the Senkaku Islands, which Japan administers but China claims as the Diaoyu Islands. Additionally, Beijing’s rapid military modernization, expansive naval operations, and construction of artificial islands in disputed areas have heightened regional tensions. These actions, coupled with China’s missile advancements and aggressive rhetoric, pose a direct challenge to Japan’s security and the broader rules-based international order in the region. The U.S. and Japan view these developments as significant threats that necessitate a unified and robust response to deter aggression and ensure regional stability.

The announcement builds on the strong defense ties between the United States and Japan, which have evolved significantly in response to regional security challenges. This partnership is characterized by close military cooperation, joint exercises, and collaborative defense initiatives aimed at enhancing mutual security and regional stability. In recent years, both nations have undertaken several key initiatives to strengthen their defense collaboration. For example, the biennial field training Exercise Keen Sword 25, conducted from October 23 to November 1, 2024, involved units from the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF) and the U.S. military, operating across various locations in Japan. This exercise aimed to improve combat readiness and strengthen interoperability between the two allies.

Japan has also been enhancing its defense capabilities through increased defense budgets. Notably, Japan is set to approve a record $734 billion (¥115.5 trillion) budget for fiscal year 2025, marking a significant investment in its national defense. This comprehensive budget includes allocations for acquiring long-range cruise missiles, U.S.-made Tomahawks, and advanced missile defense systems to bolster Japan's strike-back capabilities. These investments are part of Japan’s broader strategy to address evolving security challenges in the region and to play a more prominent role within the U.S.-Japan Alliance.

Additionally, the U.S. and Japan have expanded technological collaboration, including a recent agreement to co-develop a hypersonic interceptor to bolster missile defense systems.

This initiative comes at a time of heightened regional tensions, marked by North Korea’s ongoing missile tests, China’s assertive military maneuvers, and the proliferation of advanced weapon systems across the Indo-Pacific. The guidelines aim to address these challenges by solidifying the U.S.-Japan Alliance as a bulwark against aggression and a guarantor of regional stability.

Both nations have expressed their commitment to promoting peace and stability. A U.S. defense official described the guidelines as a testament to the Alliance’s ability to adapt and strengthen in response to emerging threats. Japanese officials echoed this sentiment, highlighting the importance of a unified and proactive approach to safeguarding the rules-based international order.

Looking ahead, the guidelines are expected to pave the way for deeper collaboration between the two nations. Joint military exercises, expanded technological partnerships, and continued strategic dialogues will further enhance their ability to prevent conflicts and maintain peace in an increasingly complex security environment. This framework marks a critical evolution in the U.S.-Japan Alliance, ensuring its relevance and effectiveness in addressing the challenges of the modern world.