German army preparing for Russian invasion of Western and Northern Europe.

The Bundeswehr (German army) has developed an exercise scenario of an actual war with Russia in the event that the latter defeats Ukraine on the battlefield, the German outlet Bild wrote, referring to a classified document drawn up by the German Defense Ministry, Ukrinform reports. The Bundeswehr told the newspaper that “looking at different scenarios, even extremely unlikely ones, is part of its military routine."
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It is important to reiterate that the German Army's scenario mediatized by Bild is part of NATO's work but not an indication of real-world intentions or events (Picture source: Army Recognition)

NATO has long been engaged in strategic planning and war scenario exercises, including those involving potential conflicts with Russia. It is essential to understand that these scenarios are part of NATO's commitment to ensuring the security of its member states and are not indicative of any imminent real-world conflict. The recent scenario detailed by Bild is one such exercise.

Historically, NATO has conducted various simulations and plans to prepare for a large array of potential threats. The scenario unveiled by Bild envisions a series of events beginning in February 2024, with Russia initiating a significant mobilization effort, adding 200,000 troops to its army that month. In the spring, Moscow launches a large-scale offensive in Ukraine and eventually defeats the Ukrainian Armed Forces by June 2024 enabled by the weakening support of Western allies.

Later in September, Russia conducts military exercises known as "Zapad 2024" involving 50,000 forces in the western part of Russia and Belarus. This is followed by the movement of Russian troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad in October, potentially indicating preparations for an attack on the Suwalki Gap, a vital corridor connecting Kaliningrad to Belarus through Lithuania.

In December, coinciding with the U.S. presidential election, border conflicts and unrest erupt in the United States, which Russia may seek to exploit. In January 2025, Poland and the Baltic States raise concerns about the threat from Russia, leading to NATO's consideration of credible deterrence measures to prevent an attack on the Suwalki Gap. NATO's Article 5, which stipulates that an attack on one member state is an attack on all, would be invoked if such an attack were to occur.

To address the situation, the NATO commander orders the deployment of 300,000 troops, including 30,000 Germans, to the eastern flank of the Alliance.

It is important to reiterate that this scenario is part of NATO's scenarios and is not an indication of real-world intentions or events. These simulations are crucial for maintaining readiness and preparedness in the face of potential security challenges that appear more and more likely in the light of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Defense News January 2024