Israel Under Iranian Fire: How Air Defense Withstood Wave of Ballistic Missiles.

On October 1, 2024, Israel was the target of a massive attack by Iran, which launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles in retaliation for the elimination of senior leaders from Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. This assault, considered one of the largest ballistic missile strikes against a nation-state, tested Israel's air defense system. Despite intercepting many missiles, videos circulating on social media show some reaching the ground, raising questions about the effectiveness and limitations of Israel's air defense capabilities.
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Various screenshots from videos showing the multiple strikes carried out by Iran on Israel (Picture source: X Channel @ELINTNews)

Functioning of Israel's Air Defense System

Israel's air defense is a multilayered system that intercepts various aerial threats at different altitudes and ranges. This system primarily consists of three elements:

Iron Dome: Deployed since 2011, this system is designed to intercept short-range rockets and artillery shells (ranging between 4 and 70 kilometers). The Iron Dome uses radar to identify threats and assess if they are likely to hit populated areas. If a threat is confirmed, a Tamir interceptor is launched to neutralize it. The cost per interception is estimated between $40,000 and $50,000.

IRON DOME, the most deployed air defense system, has intercepted 5000+ rockets with an over 90% success rate since 2011. (Picture source: Rafael)

David’s Sling: This more advanced system covers medium to long ranges, intercepting short-range ballistic missiles and large-caliber rockets. Its Stunner interceptor can neutralize targets up to 300 kilometers away. Unlike the Iron Dome, the Stunner does not carry an explosive warhead but destroys its target through direct impact, increasing interception accuracy. However, the cost per interception is significantly higher, around $1 million per missile.

Arrow 2 and Arrow 3: These systems are designed to intercept medium- to long-range ballistic missiles, including those reaching the exo-atmosphere. Arrow 3, in particular, can intercept missiles outside the Earth's atmosphere, neutralizing potential threats equipped with weapons of mass destruction. The cost of intercepting a missile with the Arrow 2 or Arrow 3 can reach up to $3.5 million per missile.

Each layer of the system is designed to address specific types of threats, providing in-depth defense. Sophisticated radars and command and control centers coordinate efforts to ensure maximum coverage.

David's Sling, developed by Israel in 2006 and operational since 2017, forms the middle layer of defense against cruise and lower-tier ballistic missiles, while the Arrow-3 interceptor, deployed the same year, protects against long-range ballistic missile threats (Picture source: MDA/IDF)

Analysis of Effectiveness during the Iranian Attack

During the attack on October 1, Israel successfully intercepted a significant portion of the Iranian missiles using its multilayered defense system. However, videos circulating show missiles hitting the ground, raising several questions:

System Saturation: Iran launched nearly 200 missiles in a single wave over a few hours, potentially attempting to overwhelm Israel's defenses. Even with an advanced system, there is a limit to how many threats can be addressed simultaneously.

Evolving Threats: Iran may have used hypersonic Fattah missiles, capable of maneuvering and traveling at speeds up to Mach 13-15, which present a significant challenge for current interception systems. These missiles are designed to be difficult to detect and intercept. While Arrow 3 is intended to counter such threats, hypersonic technology complicates early detection and interception efforts.

Engagement Strategy: Israel’s defense systems prioritize threats based on their trajectory. If a missile is predicted to land in an unpopulated area, it may be left unintercepted to preserve costly interceptors for more critical threats. Operators may choose not to intercept certain missiles to conserve resources, especially if they do not directly threaten lives or critical infrastructure. However, reports of missiles hitting a military base in Nevatim may suggest otherwise.

Cost and Logistics: Intercepting each missile carries a significant financial cost. In the context of a massive attack, decision-makers must balance the use of available resources with the need to protect the most sensitive areas. The presence of Iranian missiles that reached Israeli soil does not necessarily indicate a failure of the defense system. It may reflect the physical limitations of the system, which can only handle a certain number of missiles at a time due to reaction times and available interceptors.

The Iranian attack on October 1, 2024, highlighted the challenges faced by Israel’s air defense system. While largely effective in intercepting the majority of the missiles, the system is not foolproof. The saturation effect from a large number of missiles, the introduction of new adversary technologies, and logistical and financial constraints are all factors that can allow certain threats to pass through the defense network.

This situation underscores the importance for Israel to continue investing in research and development to improve its defense capabilities while adapting its strategies to evolving threats. Ongoing cooperation with international partners, such as the United States, also remains crucial to maintaining a technological and operational advantage, as well as participating in joint defense efforts during such events.