Norwegian Military Chief Warns: NATO Has Two Years to Prepare for Russian Threat.

In a recent statement to Bloomberg on June 3, 2024, Norway's Chief of Defense, Eirik Kristoffersen, warned that NATO has a narrow window of two to three years to prepare before Russia could potentially restore its capability to launch a conventional attack. This timeframe is considered shorter than previous estimates by some Western officials, as NATO members discuss Russia’s ramping up of military capacities and its ability to regenerate forces while engaged in a full-scale war with Ukraine.
Follow Army Recognition on Google News at this link

Norway plans to achieve its defense spending target within the alliance 2% of its Gross Domestic Product by 2024, with an expectation to reach 2.7% by 2030 (Picture source: Norwegian Armed Forces)

According to General Kristoffersen, ongoing industrial activities in Russia could enable the country to regain its full military strength more quickly than the previously estimated ten years. He emphasized the need for the upcoming years to be used to strengthen NATO forces and replenish their stocks, while continuing to support Ukraine.

Norway, a NATO member since 1949, has not observed any significant changes in Russia’s military “posture” at its border over the past year, including its nuclear forces and Northern Fleet, though Russia’s land forces on the Kola Peninsula have been "decimated" after suffering heavy losses in Ukraine. The Norwegian parliament is yet to approve a plan aimed at nearly doubling defense spending over the next 12 years to adjust to threats from its neighbor, focusing on naval and air defense capabilities.

Since the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, the competition in the defense industry development between Russia and NATO member countries has intensified. Despite economic challenges exacerbated by international sanctions, Russia maintains a relatively robust defense industrial base, which allows it to continue meeting its military needs.

However, this capability is partly supported by its strategic alliances with countries such as China and North Korea, which provide essential material and technological support. This support is crucial to overcome some technological and production gaps that Russia faces due to international restrictions.

Conversely, NATO member countries appear to be struggling to keep pace with the development and modernization of their own defense industrial base. Although technologically advanced, many of these countries lag in production capacity and the ability to quickly adapt to the new demands of modern warfare.

This situation is highlighted by the Norwegian defense chief’s statement, which stresses a "two-year window" needed to strengthen and modernize NATO forces. This period is seen as critical to developing and deploy adequate defense capabilities in response to Russia whose industrial capacities, although constrained, remain operational and are supported by external strategic alliances.

Norway plans to achieve its defense spending target within the alliance—2% of its Gross Domestic Product—by 2024, with an expectation to reach 2.7% by 2030. NATO members have agreed on a spending goal of more than 2%. Kristoffersen expressed satisfaction with the long-term spending, but the Norwegian military faces several bottlenecks in implementing it, such as maintaining personnel, particularly as many defense investments are in areas where demographics show people moving away. Other issues include a lack of production capacity and a procurement system that is not designed for rapid decision-making.

The Norwegian defense forces have been on "high" alert since the fall of 2022, when Russian authorities intensified their nuclear rhetoric and explosions damaged the Nord Stream pipeline. Kristoffersen noted an increased threat from subversion, disinformation, and intelligence—these are all non-kinetic threats for which they have heightened readiness.

For Norway, this means more patrolling, increased surveillance, and greater focus on closing security gaps and cyber systems. Kristoffersen explained that Norway’s response has been vigilant oversight of all activities in its neighborhood to ensure greater resilience against sabotage.