Poland to increase defence spending plans in 2025 to more than 4,5% GDP.

Poland will allocate 4.7% of its GDP to defense in 2025, marking an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the 2024 defense budget, according to budget plans that Polish media have reported. Poland is already the NATO country that spends the most on defense, with a budget amounting to 4.1% of GDP in 2024. However, the Polish government plans to further increase the defense budget by 0.6 percentage points next year.
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Polish soldiers near Belarussian Border. (Picture source: Nur Photo )

Warsaw is thus setting a record both in terms of money and the share of GDP. Poland's defense spending is already estimated at $35 billion in 2024, making it the fifth largest spender in NATO, with the United States leading the pack at around $968 billion. Poland also hopes to shift some of these costs to the EU budget, which would significantly ease the national budget, according to a government source. The argument is that Poland shares an EU border with Russia and war-torn Ukraine. "We are in serious discussions with the EU to include some of these defense elements in the EU budget because we are on the front line and bear responsibility for the entire Union," the source said.

The source also revealed that discussions are ongoing and a decision is expected before the end of September. "If even 1% [of the total amount] is transferred, it will be a success," the source emphasized. The 2025 budget will be the first presented by the new government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Civic Platform, EPP), who replaced the previous conservative PiS (ECR) government in December last year.

Other sources indicate that the Polish budget in 2025 will be even more in deficit than this year’s, as the European Commission recently initiated an excessive deficit procedure against Warsaw. The sources explain that the envisaged deficit is necessary to compensate for the extravagant spending of the government that has led Poland over the past eight years.

However, Poland prioritizes its defense budget not only because NATO requires it but also due to facing much higher recruitment numbers than expected. This is due to the war in Ukraine and the deep-seated fear of Russia in the Polish nation. As the country representing NATO's eastern border and being targeted by numerous attempts at humanitarian and military destabilization, Poland needs to bolster its equipment and infrastructure. Indeed, since 2021, Belarus has orchestrated a significant migration crisis at the border, leading to regular clashes and sometimes exchanges of fire.

Another aspect is that the war in Ukraine has a significant impact on the Polish armed forces, which are not only on regular alert but also raising the level of readiness due to various incidents directly resulting from the conflict, such as the 2023 fall of an S-300 missile on Polish territory or, more recently, the incursion of a suicide drone into Polish airspace.

The North Atlantic Alliance imposes a percentage of GDP to be spent on national defense to prevent some countries from relying on the more powerful ones. During the 2014 summit in Wales, the 28 NATO member states committed to spending at least 2% of their GDP on military expenses by 2024. In 2024, 23 of the current 32 member states will meet this requirement. U.S. defense spending has consistently represented more than 70% of NATO defense spending since 2010, and according to NATO data, the U.S. military budget increased to $968 billion in 2024. In terms of the percentage of GDP allocated to defense, Poland remains well ahead in 2022, one point higher than the United States.