Preparing for War: Poland to Increase Military Spending to 5% of GDP.

In response to increasing regional tensions with Russia and Belarus, Poland has announced a significant increase in its military expenditures, planning to allocate 5% of its GDP to defense by 2025. This announcement was made by the Polish Foreign Minister on July 13, 2024. This strategic decision positions Poland as the leading contributor to defense spending in Europe, with NATO statistics projecting the country's military budget to exceed 32 billion euros next year.
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December 28, 2021, the head of the Ministry of National Defense participated in handing over the Krab self-propelled gun howitzers to the soldiers of the 18th Mechanized Division (Picture source: Polish MoD)

Since 2022, Poland has significantly boosted its defense budget, largely through the establishment of a support fund for the armed forces managed by Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego, valued at nearly 40 billion zlotys (about 10 billion euros). This increased funding has enabled substantial military acquisitions including Abrams and K2 tanks, F-35A fighter jets, F/A-50 light combat aircraft, HIMARS and K-9 Thunder artillery systems, Apache and AW-149 helicopters, and Arrowhead 140 frigates.

However, recent controversy arose from a leak of documents from the Polish Ministry of Defense, suggesting potential budget cuts amounting to 57 billion zlotys (13.4 billion euros) for the period 2025-28. These documents, disclosed by TV Republika and claimed to be confidential, hinted at reductions in military spending. The Polish government quickly condemned these reports as "false information" and threatened legal action to protect the ministry’s reputation and counter the spread of misinformation. Speculations also exist about foreign, particularly Russian, influences behind these leaks.

Despite these claims, TV Republika and other media outlets have stood by their reporting, confirming the authenticity of the documents. However, they clarified that these were merely "working documents" intended for potential budget adjustments, as noted by Konkret 24, a Polish site dedicated to debunking false information.

Adding to the national defense narrative, Radoslaw Sikorski, the Polish Foreign Minister, recently reaffirmed the country's commitment to increasing military spending in an interview with Bloomberg Television at a NATO summit in Washington. He emphasized that Poland's investment in defense not only surpasses that of the United States in proportional terms but is also a necessary adjustment in a world where post-Cold War peace can no longer be taken for granted.

General Wieslaw Kukula, Chief of Staff of the Polish Armed Forces, also highlighted the necessity of preparing for large-scale conflict rather than asymmetric warfare. This strategic shift is part of Poland's broader initiative to strengthen its eastern border with a new investment of 10 billion zlotys aimed at establishing an "eastern shield" along its borders with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad. This initiative will increase the number of military and law enforcement personnel in the area to 8,000, up from the current 6,000, with an additional reserve of 9,000 troops ready to be deployed within 48 hours.