British Intel: Russia launches a new conscription cycle to enlist about 150,000 soldiers.

According to a UK Intelligence report from April 10, 2024, Russia launched its spring conscription cycle on April 1, 2024, aiming to enlist approximately 150,000 soldiers aged between 18 and 30, consistent with the numbers from previous years. These conscripts are required to serve for 12 months across all branches of the Russian military, though they are not currently deployed in combat roles in Ukraine. Instead, they are stationed at garrisons throughout Russia and typically form battalions separate from those comprised of contract service soldiers. Some of these conscripts are likely positioned near the Ukrainian border in units tasked with providing border security. However, the forces actively engaged in Ukraine are primarily made up of contract soldiers and some reservists who were mobilized at the end of 2022.
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Training of Russian contract soldiers and conscripts at training fields and training centers in the Southern Military District in September 2023 (Picture source: Russian MoD)

The Russian military exerts pressure on conscripts to sign up as contract soldiers, which would then make them eligible for deployment in Ukraine. Russian authorities appear cautious about deploying conscripts in combat roles, likely due to the potential unpopularity of combat losses among these younger, less voluntary recruits. In contrast, Russian society is more accepting of casualties among volunteer or contract soldiers.

At the end of 2023, the active members of the Russian armed forces were estimated at one million, making Russia one of the largest military forces in the world by personnel. Facing heavy losses in Ukraine, Russia has set a recruitment goal of approximately 400,000 contract personnel for 2024. This initiative is part of a broader effort to sustain its military operations in Ukraine and to support its announced goal to increase the size of its armed forces to 1.32 million by the end of this year and to 1.5 million subsequently.

Both Russia and Ukraine face significant challenges in recruiting men for the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly due to the high number of combat losses deterring many potential volunteers. To address the shortage of soldiers, Russia has taken drastic measures such as releasing prisoners to enlist them in the war effort, a strategy that highlights the severity of their personnel needs. Additionally, it has recruited soldiers from the remote eastern regions of the country, where limited economic options make contractual military service more appealing despite the high risks. Recently, lawmakers raised the upper age limit for mobilization from 27 to 30 years.

On the other hand, Ukraine has also had to adapt its mobilization strategies to increase its forces. The Ukrainian army faces significant challenges in recruiting soldiers for the ongoing conflict against Russia. These difficulties are exacerbated by the heavy human toll of the conflict, which deters many potential recruits.

Moreover, the depletion of human resources after several waves of mobilization has reduced the pool of available candidates. Ukraine has therefore been forced to modify its mobilization conditions to expand the recruitment pool, including broader calls for volunteers and potentially easing age and physical fitness criteria. These measures aim to offset losses and maintain pressure against the opposing forces, but they underscore the continuous strain on Ukraine's defense capabilities in a protracted conflict.

Defense News April 2024