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Satellite Images Reveal Rise of Chinese Forces with 59 New DF-26 Missile Launchers.
In October 2024, new satellite images revealed a significant increase in Chinese production of launchers for DF-26 ballistic missiles, indicating a considerable strengthening of China’s strategic arsenal. An image taken on September 9, 2024, by Umbra's synthetic aperture radar (SAR) showed 59 mobile launchers at the Xinghang Electromechanical Equipment production site in Beijing. This observation highlights the growing capabilities of China, raising important strategic concerns, particularly in the United States.
The recent increase in DF-26 production is viewed as a response to perceived shifts in U.S. military presence and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea (Picture source: Chinese MoD)
The DF-26 is an intermediate-range ballistic missile from the Dong Feng family, developed by the China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation (CASC). With a range of 4,000 km, it is the first Chinese missile capable of striking conventional targets, such as U.S. bases in Guam. This solid-fuel, two-stage missile is 14 meters long and weighs 20 tons, capable of carrying a payload between 1,200 and 1,800 kg, including nuclear warheads and various conventional warheads. It is deployed on a mobile Taian HTF5680 launcher, allowing for rapid and discreet deployment. The DF-26’s modular design enables the warheads to be swapped based on mission requirements, with options for both land strikes and moving naval targets, supported by a terminal guidance system.
Since its unveiling in 2015, production of the DF-26 has accelerated, with over 250 units produced by 2024. The brigades of the People’s Liberation Army equipped with these missiles benefit from their mobility and precision strike capabilities, targeting a range of assets including military installations and medium-sized ships. Its operational flexibility and extended range make it a key component of China’s anti-access and area denial strategy, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region.
Between 2023 and 2024, satellite images and industry reports indicate that the Beijing-Xinghang facility produced at least 72 new launchers, enough to equip two additional missile brigades. These units would join the seven existing brigades of the People’s Liberation Army, bringing the total number of DF-26 launchers to around 250. However, some experts, notably from the Federation of American Scientists, suggest that China may be inflating the actual number of launchers, potentially creating confusion about the true extent of its capabilities.
The DF-26, part of the Dong Feng missile family ("East Wind"), offers enhanced strategic capabilities compared to earlier versions such as the DF-21. Its extended range, combined with improved accuracy through satellite-assisted inertial guidance, makes it a serious threat to high-value targets like military bases, airports, and naval facilities. The potential integration of terminal guidance could also enable the DF-26 to fulfill anti-ship roles, posing a threat to U.S. carrier strike groups operating in the Pacific.
The recent increase in DF-26 production is viewed as a response to perceived shifts in U.S. military presence and alliances in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea. The expansion of China’s missile arsenal could also signal an intention to challenge U.S. access to its strategic bases, which play a crucial role in supporting regional alliances with Japan, South Korea, and other partners. Growing tensions in the region, combined with the DF-26's dual-use (nuclear and conventional) nature, raise concerns about the risk of unintended escalation in a crisis, particularly if a conventional strike is misinterpreted as a nuclear attack.
As China strengthens its strategic forces, it continues to expand its nuclear capabilities. U.S. estimates suggest that by 2030, China's nuclear arsenal could exceed 1,000 warheads, primarily in the form of intercontinental missiles. In parallel, efforts are underway to increase the number of long-range missile launchers, including the DF-31 and DF-41, which are capable of reaching the U.S. mainland.