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South Korea Warns of Looming North Korean Nuclear Test Before US Election.
On October 30, 2024, South Korea’s Ministry of Defense informed lawmakers that North Korea appears ready for a seventh nuclear test and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) launch, potentially timed with the U.S. presidential election on November 5. Intelligence obtained during a confidential briefing indicates that North Korea has completed preparations for a nuclear test at its Punggye-ri site, with specific equipment and launch units in place, likely for an ICBM launch designed to demonstrate atmospheric reentry capabilities.
The ICBM, possibly a Hwasong-18 or similar, would test the durability of reentry technology, crucial for ensuring the warhead survives extreme heat and friction en route to its target (Picture source: KCNA)
The session, conducted by representatives of South Korean military intelligence, also revealed signs of North Korean troops mobilized in Russia. Some units are reported to have joined the frontlines in the Kursk region, where Russian forces face Ukrainian counteroffensives. This deployment, observers note, underscores the strengthened strategic alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow amidst the ongoing Ukraine conflict, a factor North Korea appears to be leveraging to intensify its military activities.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has been ramping up displays of power in recent months, accelerating missile tests and revealing a secret military-grade uranium production facility in September. According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has deployed a mobile launcher, likely a 12-axle model recently shown in state media, for an ICBM launch potentially reaching U.S. territory. This move aligns with warnings from South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol that Pyongyang may orchestrate significant military provocations around U.S. elections to pressure Washington and its allies.
The ICBM, possibly a Hwasong-18 or similar, would test the durability of reentry technology, crucial for ensuring the warhead survives extreme heat and friction en route to its target. While previous North Korean ICBM tests were conducted at steep angles to minimize distance and avoid neighboring territories, analysts suggest that a more standard trajectory would represent a major advancement in North Korea’s missile program. Such a test would confirm North Korea’s capability to target distant locations, including the U.S. mainland.
The escalation of tensions on the Korean Peninsula since 2022, particularly following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has allowed North Korea to advance its nuclear and missile programs under reduced international scrutiny. In this context, recent reports from South Korean authorities leave little doubt regarding Kim Jong Un’s intentions to continue developing weapons of mass destruction while strengthening alliances with powers outside the Western sphere, such as Russia.
For decades, North Korea has pursued nuclear capabilities to bolster its deterrence against perceived threats. Relying on asymmetric armament strategies to offset the limitations of its conventional forces, Pyongyang has made significant progress in nuclear warhead miniaturization and ICBM development, such as the Hwasong-14 and Hwasong-15 models. These capabilities position North Korea as a nuclear power capable of targeting the U.S., thereby increasing geopolitical pressure on the United States and its allies.
As North Korea strategically positions itself, the U.S. and its regional allies continue to closely monitor these preparations to anticipate any potential threat. The possibility of a nuclear test and an ICBM launch around the U.S. election period introduces an air of uncertainty, underscoring the importance of maintaining international vigilance.