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Taiwan Eyes F-35 and Patriot Missiles to Show Defense Resolve to Trump in Face of China.
As tensions intensify across the Taiwan Strait, Taiwan is evaluating a substantial arms procurement from the United States, aiming to solidify its defense capabilities and affirm its commitment to self-defense. According to reports from the Financial Times, Taiwan is considering a $15 billion investment that would include the acquisition of 60 F-35 fighter jets, 400 Patriot missiles, four E-2D Hawkeye early warning aircraft, ten second-hand warships, and the Aegis combat system. This proposed purchase, aside from enhancing Taiwan’s defense, is intended to signal to the U.S., specifically to the incoming Trump administration, Taiwan's willingness to independently fortify its defenses amid growing Chinese military assertiveness.
Taiwan is particularly interested in the F-35B model, which can perform short takeoffs and vertical landings (Picture source: US DoD)
The Lockheed Martin F-35 is central to Taiwan's potential purchase, seen as a significant deterrent against Chinese aggression. A fifth-generation stealth fighter, the F-35 is highly capable of air superiority and strike missions, featuring advanced stealth technology, supersonic speed, and superior maneuverability.
The aircraft is equipped with a sophisticated sensor suite, featuring the AN/APG-81 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, the Distributed Aperture System (DAS), and the Electro-Optical Targeting System (EOTS), all of which enhance situational awareness and targeting precision. Armament options encompass a variety of air-to-air and air-to-ground munitions, such as the AIM-120 AMRAAM, AIM-9X Sidewinder, and Joint Direct Attack Munitions (JDAM). The F-35's radar systems, particularly the AN/APG-81 AESA radar, provide advanced electronic warfare capabilities, including radar warning, targeting support, and jamming functions.
Among the three F-35 variants, Taiwan is particularly interested in the F-35B model, which can perform short takeoffs and vertical landings (STOVL). The STOVL capability is crucial in Taiwan’s context, as it would enable operations from short runways or emergency airstrips if major airbases were compromised by Chinese missile strikes. However, while the F-35 represents an advanced technological edge, experts are questioning its viability as the best strategic option for Taiwan, primarily due to the high costs involved and the risk of delayed delivery, potentially extending beyond 2027. This timeline is significant as experts estimate a potential Chinese military action around that year, increasing the urgency for Taiwan to evaluate its options carefully.
Alongside the F-35, Taiwan has prioritized upgrading its missile defense systems, particularly the Patriot missiles. The MIM-104 Patriot system, developed by Raytheon, is a mobile surface-to-air missile system that plays a crucial role in air and missile defense for several countries. It is designed to detect, track, and engage various aerial threats, including tactical ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. It uses components such as the AN/MPQ-53 or AN/MPQ-65 radar sets and sophisticated guidance systems. The PAC-3 Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) variant is especially relevant for Taiwan, providing extended range and improved accuracy, and Taiwan has actively sought to bolster its Patriot system in recent years. A recent U.S. proposal in December 2022 offered Taiwan up to 100 advanced Patriot missiles, valued at $882 million, further underlining Taiwan's commitment to strengthening its missile defense capabilities in response to potential threats.
Despite Taiwan’s intent to modernize its forces, some defense analysts argue that other systems might offer more immediate strategic value at a lower cost. For instance, Taiwan has shown interest in acquiring decommissioned American warships, such as Ticonderoga-class guided-missile cruisers and Perry-class frigates. These naval platforms could serve as effective access-denial (A2/AD) assets in the event of an invasion, providing Taiwan with the capability to disrupt and delay a potential Chinese assault. This kind of deterrent strategy is particularly suited to the unique geographic and military constraints Taiwan faces in the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, other assets, like HIMARS artillery and Harpoon anti-ship missiles, which were included in prior U.S. arms sales, align closely with Taiwan's defensive needs and offer an effective means of resisting amphibious incursions and protecting its coastline.
Under the Trump administration's first term, several large arms packages to Taiwan were approved, totaling over $21 billion, including F-16 Viper fighter jets, M1 Abrams tanks, HIMARS rocket systems, and Harpoon missiles. However, Trump's pragmatic stance on international relations—exemplified by his comments suggesting that Taiwan should "pay the U.S." for its security, likening the relationship to an insurance policy—has raised concerns in Taiwan about the stability and commitment of U.S. support. Despite these arms deals, doubts persist regarding the likelihood of a direct U.S. military intervention in defense of Taiwan, particularly given Trump's comments and recent global shifts in U.S. defense policy.
Compounding these strategic uncertainties, Taiwan’s role in global semiconductor production, especially through Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), adds another layer of complexity. As the world leader in advanced chip production, TSMC occupies a critical position in the global supply chain, particularly for the United States and its allies, as well as for China. This economic leverage makes Taiwan a focal point in the ongoing U.S.-China rivalry, as Beijing could use Taiwan's semiconductor sector as a pressure point to influence international responses to a Taiwan conflict.
Taiwan's strategic interest in F-35 fighter jets and additional Patriot missile batteries signals a clear commitment to enhancing its defense posture, but uncertainties remain about the efficacy of these acquisitions in meeting Taiwan’s immediate defense needs. Delivery timelines and high costs may limit the F-35's impact in the short term, suggesting that investments in access-denial systems and naval defenses could more effectively serve Taiwan’s security interests. Ultimately, Taiwan’s strategic choices are shaped by a complex interplay of regional tensions, economic considerations, and the evolving U.S.-China dynamic, underscoring the island’s need for a nuanced and adaptable defense strategy.