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Ukraine Fighting for her last defense line will it survive Russian massives assaults.
Russia continues to advance in the Donbass, taking advantage of its diversion towards Kharkiv. After the fall of Avdiivka in mid-February, Ukraine retreated further west behind several lines of fortifications. The Russian army managed to breach the first of these lines at the end of April near the town of Ocheretyne, west of Avdiivka.
Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy inspects new fortifications for Ukrainian servicemen, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near Russian border in Kharkiv region, Ukraine, April 9, 2024. (Picture source: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service)
Since then, the Russian army has been slowly gaining more territory. The Ukrainian army deployed its 47th mechanized brigade to delay this progression, but it seemed inevitable. In recent days, new villages have been captured, such as Novopokrovské on Tuesday, and the Russian army is now in front of the second line of Ukrainian defense.
Significant losses favoring Ukraine
"The Russian Center Army Group has reached the second line of Ukrainian defense near Pokrovsk," observes @Escortert, a reliable observer of the conflict, on X. "They are at the gates of Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Siversk," three key cities for controlling the Donbass, a region Vladimir Putin is determined to conquer. In mid-June, he indicated that this second defensive line must be "the stopping line, otherwise the Donbass will fall."
The fighting there is intense, and Russian losses are severe. According to Ukrainian observations, the ratio of human losses (killed and injured) is 3 to 1 in favor of the Ukrainians. The ratio of material losses is 2.5 to 1, also in favor of Ukraine. This observation is nevertheless uncertain.
For the past few weeks, Russian infantrymen have been advancing on foot or by motorcycle. The Russian soldiers attack without protection and with little offensive equipment. Footage shot in the village of Novooleksandriivka, four kilometers northwest of Ocheretyne, shows Russians being heavily hit by Ukrainian tanks at almost point-blank range. "Russian infantrymen appear to be lacking anti-tank weapons," notes @Escortert.
Two Russian Objectives
The current Russian offensive is the largest launched since February 22, 2022. On Tuesday, July 2, 189 ground attacks were recorded, a record. Two-thirds of these occurred in the Donbass region, with only 10% in the Kharkiv region. To carry out this offensive towards Pokrovsk, concentrated over a few dozen kilometers, the Russian army relies on the 30th, 55th, 74th, and 137th brigades. In response, the Ukrainian army has deployed several mechanized brigades (the 23rd, 47th, 31st, and 110th) and several infantry brigades.
The Russians aim to reach the strategic city of Pokrovsk, a logistics center for the Ukrainian army located 30 km west of Ocheretyne. The Russian army also wants to cut the highway connecting Pokrovsk to Chasiv Yar to disrupt the logistics of this city, which is barely withstanding Russian assaults. On Wednesday, July 3, the Russian army claimed to have taken a first neighborhood in this city, located on the eastern bank of the canal, which serves as a natural fortification for the Ukrainian army.
On the Ukrainian side, the defensive lines are particularly controversial, especially after the Russian attempted offensive in the Kharkiv region. This offensive revealed that these paid fortifications were never built. The question today is whether the Donbass defense line, currently under Russian attack, is fully completed and if it can withstand and serve as the stopping line as expected.