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US Admiral Raises Doubts Over North Korea’s Nuclear Strike Capabilities.
On November 19, 2024, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific, stated that North Korea’s numerous tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) have yet to demonstrate the capability to successfully deliver a nuclear warhead to the U.S. mainland. He made this observation during an appearance at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
This photo, taken on November 18, 2022, shows North Korea's new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the "Hwasong Gun 17," before its launch at Pyongyang International Airport (Picture source: KCNA)
North Korea recently conducted a test flight of its Hwasong-19 missile, the largest ICBM developed by the regime to date. According to Admiral Paparo, the test indicated the missile’s ability to reach the entire continental United States. However, when questioned about North Korea's capability to pair a nuclear warhead with an ICBM capable of enduring the stresses of launch, flight, and atmospheric reentry, Paparo clarified that such a capability has not yet been observed. He added that continued testing is evident in efforts to achieve this goal.
Under Kim Jong Un’s leadership, North Korea has accelerated its missile and nuclear weapons development programs while adopting increasingly hostile rhetoric toward South Korea. Simultaneously, the regime has emerged as a strategic ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, particularly in the context of the war in Ukraine. Following the latest missile test, the state-run Korean Central News Agency described the Hwasong-19 as the “ultimate version” of an ICBM intended for deployment by North Korea’s strategic forces.
Admiral Paparo’s remarks align with earlier assessments by U.S. officials, offering a cautious view of the threat posed by Pyongyang’s missile advancements. In 2022, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan highlighted uncertainties regarding North Korea’s ability to successfully pair a nuclear warhead with an ICBM, fire it, and strike a precise target in the United States. Nonetheless, such uncertainties do not negate the broader threats posed by North Korea to U.S. interests. Over decades, Pyongyang has amassed an extensive arsenal of millions of artillery shells and thousands of rockets positioned north of the border with South Korea, where nearly 30,000 U.S. troops are stationed. Furthermore, North Korea has demonstrated its ability to launch missiles over Japan, a key U.S. ally in the region.
Kim Jong Un continues to pledge enhancements to North Korea’s nuclear capabilities, citing the need to counter threats posed by the security alliance among the United States and its regional allies. This week, North Korean state media reported Kim’s accusations against the U.S., Japan, and South Korea for destabilizing the Korean Peninsula and the broader region. Kim referred to the alliance as an “Asian version of NATO” and asserted that these nations would bear responsibility for undermining peace and stability.
North Korea has made significant strides in ICBM development. In July 2017, it conducted its first test of the Hwasong-14, followed in November 2017 by the Hwasong-15. These missiles, with estimated ranges of approximately 10,400 km and 8,500–13,000 km respectively, place the entire U.S. mainland within potential reach.
In October 2024, Pyongyang tested the Hwasong-19, its largest ICBM to date. The missile reached a record altitude of 7,000 km and flew for 87 minutes, demonstrating a range sufficient to cover the U.S. mainland. However, analysts have raised concerns about the practicality of this missile in a conflict scenario due to its significant size, which could limit its mobility and make it more vulnerable to preemptive strikes.
Despite these advancements, questions persist about North Korea’s ability to effectively integrate a nuclear warhead with an ICBM capable of withstanding the rigorous conditions of launch, flight, and atmospheric reentry. While progress is evident, U.S. officials have noted that a full demonstration of this capability has yet to occur.