US Plan to Flood Taiwan Strait with Drones to Counter China.

On May 6, 2024, in response to escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait, Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, unveiled a bold strategy designed to counter any attempt by China to invade Taiwan. At the Shangri-La Dialogue summit of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the admiral presented a plan to saturate the Taiwan Strait with thousands of drones, in what he described as an "unmanned hellscape."

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US present a plan to saturate the Taiwan Strait with thousands of drones (Picture source: Army Recognition)

This initiative aims to create a massive and automated first line of defense, capable of making life "absolutely miserable" for Chinese forces for at least a month. This period, according to Admiral Paparo, would be crucial for the United States to mobilize an adequate response to support Taiwan.

The concept relies on the deployment of a wide range of unmanned systems, including aerial drones, surface ships, and submarines, which would be engaged immediately at the first sign of a Chinese incursion. The initiative leverages the Defense Department's Replicator program, a long-term project aimed at developing thousands of autonomous systems to enhance U.S. military capabilities. The budget allocated for this fiscal year amounts to $1 billion, underscoring the strategic importance of the program.

This "mass against mass" strategy is designed to counter the considerable number of ships, missiles, and personnel that China could deploy in a conflict. Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks emphasized that the U.S. relies on systems that are difficult to predict, target, and neutralize to overcome the Chinese numerical advantage.

Exemplifying the Department's focus on harnessing the value of commercial technology to solve critical operational challenges, the first iteration of the Replicator initiative has reached a key execution milestone.

Deputy Secretary Hicks announced some of the capabilities and one of the systems selected for accelerated deployment as part of the first tranche of the Replicator initiative, which is focused on deploying all-domain attritable autonomous (ADA2) systems.

The Department has secured the necessary funding of about $500 million for FY24, including approximately $300 million from the FY 2024 defense appropriations bill supporting the Department's reprogramming request and additional funding identified using existing authorities and Defense-wide sources. For PB25, the Department has requested a roughly equal amount to the FY24 total and will work with Congress to support this request.

These investments bring together the capabilities of a broad range of traditional and nontraditional technology companies, including systems vendors, component manufacturers, and software developers.

The first tranche of Replicator capabilities includes uncrewed surface vehicles (USV), uncrewed aerial systems (UAS), and counter-uncrewed aerial systems (c-UAS) of various sizes and payloads from several traditional and non-traditional vendors.

In the aerial domain, the Department will accelerate the deployment of the Switchblade-600 loitering munition, produced by AeroVironment Inc., based in Simi Valley, California. U.S.-supplied Switchblade drones have already demonstrated their utility in Ukraine, and this system will provide additional capability to U.S. forces.

In the maritime domain, the Department is diversifying the vendor base for USVs through the recently announced Production-Ready, Inexpensive, Maritime Expeditionary (PRIME) Commercial Solutions Opening (CSO). The CSO process allows U.S. and international companies to pitch technologies to the Department in a fast-track process for a prototype contract. Launched on January 30, 2024, the PRIME CSO received over one hundred applications from commercial technology companies. With FY24 funding secured, the Department is on track to award several contracts this summer.

The first tranche of Replicator also includes certain capabilities that remain classified, including others in the maritime domain and some in the counter-UAS portfolio.

Since Deputy Secretary Hicks' announcement of the Replicator initiative and its initial focus on ADA2 systems just over seven months ago, the Department-wide effort has systematically aligned senior leaders around a common vision to identify and validate key joint operational gaps and rapidly field solutions in 18-24 months. The Department is also preparing the next tranche of capabilities to add to the ADA2 portfolio.

"This is just the beginning," said Admiral Christopher Grady, Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. "Replicator is helping us jumpstart the delivery of critical capabilities at scale. We will build on that momentum with industry partners to deliver what the warfighter needs, and remove barriers to doing so again and again."

Recent Chinese military exercises around Taiwan, which simulated a blockade of the island, not only demonstrated China's rapid ability to implement such a strategy, but also served as a learning opportunity for American forces. According to Admiral Paparo, these maneuvers resembled a general rehearsal for an invasion, allowing the United States to refine its own preparations accordingly.

The unveiling of this strategic plan comes at a critical time when stability in the Indo-Pacific region is increasingly threatened by China's territorial ambitions. By transforming the Taiwan Strait into a largely automated battlefield, the United States hopes not only to deter China from any future aggression but also to effectively protect Taiwan's sovereignty in the face of imminent military escalation.