US says Russia plans Oreshnik ballistic missile test against Ukraine soon.

During a press conference on December 11, 2024, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin had publicly stated plans to conduct another test launch of the Oreshnik ballistic missile against Ukraine. While specific details of the test remain unclear, Singh indicated that the launch could take place "in the coming days," though no precise date has been provided by Russian officials.
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The Oreshnik ballistic missile is a next-generation Russian weapon believed to feature hypersonic capabilities, precision guidance, and the ability to carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), making it a significant threat to both air defenses and strategic targets. (Picture source: Russian MoD)

The Oreshnik ballistic missile, an experimental weapon in Russia’s arsenal, has garnered significant attention within the global defense community. First introduced publicly as part of Russia’s advanced missile development programs, the Oreshnik is believed to be a precision-guided, hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) designed to enhance strike capabilities. It reportedly travels at speeds exceeding Mach 10, making it highly challenging to intercept with current defense systems. The missile is equipped with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), allowing it to carry several warheads—either conventional or nuclear—capable of striking multiple targets simultaneously. Its range is estimated to be between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers, enabling it to reach targets across Europe and parts of Asia.

The Oreshnik saw its first confirmed operational use on November 21, 2024, during the Russo-Ukrainian War. The missile was employed in an attack on Ukraine's PA Pivdenmash facility in Dnipro. Initially, Ukrainian reports speculated that the attack involved an intercontinental ballistic missile; however, subsequent assessments identified the Oreshnik as the weapon used. The missile was launched from Astrakhan Oblast, likely the Kapustin Yar training ground. It reportedly carried a MIRV payload, as suggested by unverified footage. Later analyses indicated the strike may not have involved explosives and was potentially intended as a political demonstration.

According to senior Ukrainian officials, the missile was equipped with "dummy" warheads that lacked explosives, prompting U.S. experts to describe the method as an "expensive way to deliver not that much destruction." Despite that, a director at the Center for Strategic and International Studies said that Oreshnik's warheads, even inert, can cause "a lot of damage" because of the kinetic energy created by their hypersonic speed. The launch appears to have been conducted with a lofted trajectory. Eyewitness accounts described prolonged explosions lasting up to three hours.

Deputy Press Secretary Singh sought to temper speculation about the missile’s potential impact, emphasizing that it would not constitute a decisive shift in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. "Should Russia choose to launch this type of missile, it’s not going to be a game changer on the battlefield," Singh said. "They’re trying to use every weapon in their arsenal to intimidate Ukraine. But Ukraine, with the United States and other partners around the world, continues to have our support as they fight every single day on the battlefield."

The United States and its allies have been steadfast in their military and economic support for Ukraine, supplying advanced weaponry, intelligence, and financial assistance to bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities. Despite Russia’s efforts to escalate tensions through demonstrations of military power, Singh reaffirmed the commitment of Ukraine’s international partners to ensure its resilience and sovereignty.

The potential use of Oreshnik missiles poses significant threats to both Ukraine and Europe. For Ukraine, the missile’s high speed, precision, and ability to carry multiple warheads amplify the risks to critical infrastructure and civilian populations. Russia’s ability to conduct long-range strikes with near impunity challenges Ukraine’s air defense systems and could complicate ongoing counteroffensives. Beyond Ukraine, the missile’s range places much of Europe within reach, raising concerns about the broader security of NATO member states and the potential for escalations in the region. Additionally, the threat of Russia pairing hypersonic delivery systems with nuclear warheads heightens the strategic risk, forcing European nations to reassess their missile defense capabilities.

In conclusion, while the Oreshnik missile’s tactical value on the battlefield may be limited, its potential as a strategic weapon of intimidation underscores the need for continued vigilance and cooperation among Ukraine’s allies. The missile serves as a reminder of the evolving nature of modern warfare and the importance of maintaining robust defenses against emerging threats.