Taiwan
has all but given up on acquiring diesel-electric submarines from the
US and is expected to embark on a domestic program with assistance from
abroad, a leading defense analyst told the Taipei Times. Longstanding
plans to augment Taiwan’s small and aging submarine fleet gained
momentum in 2001, when the administration of US president George W.
Bush offered to provide eight diesel-electric submarines to Taiwan for
about US$12 billion.
With efforts going nowhere, in 2003 the Pentagon suggested that Taiwan
consider buying refurbished submarines from Italy, and Rome reportedly
agreed to sell four Nazario Sauro-class boats and an additional four
following their decommissioning by the Italian Navy. However, Taipei
rejected the offer, saying it wanted new submarines.
As a result of political wrangling in Taiwan’s legislature,
moves by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the US to appease Beijing
amid efforts at cross-strait reconciliation, and pressure from China
on Washington, Bush’s deal never materialized.
During a meeting with American Institutes in Taiwan Chairman Raymond
Burghardt in January, President Ma Ying-jeou reiterated Taiwan’s
desire to acquire submarines from the US, which some analysts interpreted
as a sign of renewed commitment. Despite this, the arms package announced
to the US Congress by US President Barack Obama in October did not include
submarines or even a feasibility study.
Another problem that has haunted the sale is the fact that the US has
not produced diesel submarines since the 1950s.
This could be about to change, with a US defense analyst familiar with
the Taiwanese military saying he feels positive the navy will move ahead
on the submarine program in the not-so-distant future.
Mark Stokes, executive director at the US-based Project 2049 Institute
and a vocal proponent of a submarine program for Taiwan, said the Ministry
of National Defense had given up on acquiring submarines from the US
and had decided to launch an indigenous program with foreign assistance.
Military sources claim that research on submarine building has been
launched and that the navy is trying to acquire production know-how
from abroad.
The ministry has reportedly commissioned a local shipbuilder to contract
a country other than the US capable of building submarines for cooperation
in building non-nuclear-powered boats.
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The Naval Shipbuilding Development Center under Navy
Command has been very busy studying the blueprints of the navy’s
two Hai Lung-class submarines — Taiwan’s only combat-ready
subs — which were acquired from the Netherlands in the late 1980s.
Naval authorities are also reportedly readying to send personnel abroad
to study production technology or negotiate technology transfers for
building pressure-resistant hulls, which sources say is the most challenging
aspect in building submarines.
Stokes said a good number of countries have the capabilities sought
by Taiwan.
In the initial stage, the navy could limit its domestic program to small
subs in the hundreds of deadweight tonnage, the report said.
Weighing in, James Holmes, an associate professor of strategy at the
US Naval War College, told the Taipei Times that Taipei was right to
give up on the US as a supplier of submarines, as this was never going
to happen.
“Anti-submarine warfare is a People’s Liberation Army Navy
Achilles’ heel,” he said, adding that “in the abstract
a Taiwanese submarine force would be ideal.”
However, this would be a very long-term project whose outcome remains
uncertain, Holmes said.
“The general concepts are well known, but there are countless
intricacies to converting a design on paper to a real fighting implement,”
he said. “There is no substitute for actually going through the
learning process of designing, building and operating complex platforms.”
Holmes nevertheless believes Taiwan should focus instead on small craft
analogous to China’s Type 022 Houbei fast attack missile boat,
which in his view would be a better investment, and come without the
delay and uncertainty involved in fielding a proven submarine design.
“If I were advising President Ma or his successor, I would advise
them to put the island’s finite resources into platforms that
Taiwanese shipwrights know how to build, that can be at sea in the relatively
near future and that Taiwan navy crews have some experience operating,”
he said.
From: Taipei Times
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