Russia prepares for naval confrontation with NATO by demonstrating new sea drone.

On July 26, 2025, in the Baltic Sea, Russia intensified its show of naval force during the large-scale “July Storm” exercises featuring a new unmanned surface drone equipped with explosives and designed to strike and destroy simulated targets. The drone, whose design closely resembles the Ukrainian sea drones effectively used in the Black Sea, was presented in footage released by the Russian Ministry of Defense. The video shows a small crewless vessel speeding toward a floating structure and detonating in a powerful explosion. While portrayed as an innovation, the demonstration appears to serve more as a strategic communication tool than as evidence of a tactical breakthrough.
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In this context, Russia’s use of explosive drones against mock targets appears to be aimed at an adversary with a conventional naval force (Picture source:  Russian MoD )

The conditions of the exercise, with calm waters, a static target and no defensive systems, suggest a carefully staged display rather than a realistic combat scenario. Nonetheless, the explosive charge was clearly substantial, and pro-Kremlin military bloggers claimed the drone can operate autonomously for up to 24 hours and strike targets over 300 kilometers away. Theoretically, this range would place ports like Odesa or Izmail within reach from occupied Crimea. However, these assertions remain unverifiable with no confirmed evidence of serial production or operational deployment.

The Russian Ministry of Defense did not disclose the drone’s designation but stated that other unmanned systems were tested during the exercise, including FPV drones, helicopters, aerial drones and underwater vehicles. The inclusion of multiple platforms in the same scenario suggests an effort to develop integrated capabilities, though the precise functions and performance of these systems remain unclear. In a statement relayed by the Ministry of Defense, President Vladimir Putin said the exercises aimed to train naval forces in repelling maritime attacks and executing the full spectrum of highly complex and unconventional operational and tactical missions in a realistic environment. He added that the training incorporated experience gained during the special military operation, using the official terminology for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

While the demonstration may have drawn inspiration from the war against Kyiv, it likely does not target Ukraine directly. Ukraine no longer possesses a conventional navy, having scuttled its remaining vessels early in the conflict to prevent their capture. Instead, Kyiv adopted an asymmetric strategy, deploying homemade sea drones and conducting missile strikes against the Russian Black Sea Fleet. These operations damaged or destroyed dozens of Russian vessels and forced Moscow to relocate its fleet from occupied Sevastopol in Crimea to the port of Novorossiysk on the eastern side of the region.

In this context, Russia’s use of explosive drones against mock targets appears to be aimed at an adversary with a conventional naval force. Analysts suggest that the true objective of these exercises is to prepare for a potential confrontation with NATO. The Alliance is also adapting to new naval threats, particularly those posed by drones. The US Navy, for example has introduced new training modules to help sailors survive in environments saturated with autonomous threats. The inclusion of anti-submarine warfare, mine-laying, and missile strike scenarios in the Russian exercises further supports the idea that this is a rehearsal for high-intensity naval operations against a major opponent.

Beyond the Black Sea, the proliferation of armed sea drones is expanding to other theaters. In the Red Sea, Iran-backed Houthi rebels have used such systems to strike commercial vessels, disrupting critical shipping routes in the Middle East. The spread of these asymmetric tactics made possible by relatively accessible technologies is challenging traditional naval balances and prompting major powers to reconsider their maritime defense strategies.

Far from being a mere technological catch-up, the “July Storm” exercise reflects Russia’s intent to integrate autonomous naval warfare into its future doctrine. This evolution does not appear to be a direct response to Ukraine but rather a preparation for a potential confrontation with NATO. By emulating Ukraine’s successes, Moscow is attempting to transform its vulnerabilities in the Black Sea into a doctrinal opportunity in a maritime environment that is becoming increasingly unpredictable.