US Congress Warns of Rising Costs and Challenges in US Navy's 2025 Shipbuilding Plan.

According to information published by the US Gov on January 6, 2025, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has released its analysis of the U.S. Navy’s ambitious 2025 Shipbuilding Plan, highlighting significant increases in costs and challenges in execution. The plan envisions a modernized fleet to address evolving maritime threats, but the financial and logistical demands underscore the scale of the undertaking.
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The Virginia-class submarine USS Texas at Portsmouth Naval Shipyard. (Picture source: US DoD)

The Navy aims to expand its current fleet of 295 battle force ships to 390 by 2054, while also integrating 134 unmanned surface and undersea vessels. However, the fleet is expected to shrink in the near term, dropping to 283 ships by 2027 due to planned retirements before rebounding in subsequent years. This strategy aligns with the Navy’s Distributed Maritime Operations concept, which emphasizes spreading offensive and defensive capabilities across a larger number of platforms.

The costs of implementing the 2025 plan are projected to average $40.1 billion annually, adjusted for inflation, over the next three decades. This represents a 46 percent increase compared to the Navy’s recent funding levels. The CBO’s projections are significantly higher than the Navy’s estimates, reflecting differing assumptions about labor, materials, and inflation trends in shipbuilding. For example, the CBO estimates the cost of Columbia-class ballistic missile submarines and Ford-class aircraft carriers will be billions more than the Navy projects.

Challenges within the shipbuilding industrial base compound the difficulties of meeting the Navy’s goals. Shipyard production rates have slowed dramatically, with construction times for destroyers and submarines extending to nearly a decade. Labor shortages and an aging supplier base further complicate efforts, particularly as shipyards face increasing demands for complex vessels like nuclear-powered submarines. To address these issues, the Navy has committed $10 billion to improve the submarine industrial base, including investments in workforce development and infrastructure.

The plan also emphasizes the construction of six Ford-class carriers to replace aging Nimitz-class vessels, a continued investment in attack submarines, and the development of next-generation destroyers and smaller combatants. However, delays in new ship classes and cost overruns could impact the Navy’s ability to meet its long-term objectives. For example, the introduction of the next-generation attack submarine has been postponed to 2040, while production rates for the Virginia-class submarines have not yet met planned targets.

While the Navy’s focus on unmanned systems signals a strategic pivot toward future warfare, these platforms remain largely in the development phase, with unclear costs and capabilities. The integration of unmanned vessels into the fleet will be critical to achieving the Navy’s vision of a hybrid force, but questions remain about the technological readiness and operational role of these systems.

The CBO’s analysis serves as a sobering reminder of the challenges inherent in such an ambitious plan. The envisioned fleet reflects the Navy’s response to growing geopolitical threats, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, but the realization of this vision will require careful navigation of fiscal constraints, industrial limitations, and strategic priorities.

As Congress reviews the 2025 Shipbuilding Plan, the balance between ambition and feasibility will be a focal point. The decisions made in the coming years will shape the future of the U.S. Navy.