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US Navy Bets on Large Naval Drones to Counter China and Disperse Operational Risks.
Amid rising strategic tensions with China in the South China Sea and the broader Western Pacific, the US Navy is accelerating its shift toward a more distributed, autonomous fleet tailored to high-intensity conflict. This transformation relies on the development of new types of uncrewed platforms, both surface and underwater, designed to conduct high-risk missions without exposing US sailors to harm. The objective is clear: to maintain maritime superiority against adversaries capable of challenging the US Navy’s freedom of action in increasingly contested environments. These uncrewed naval systems could play a critical role in a potential confrontation with China by enabling greater dispersion of assets, overwhelming adversary defenses, and providing more flexible and resilient responses to missile attacks or asymmetric actions. It is in this context that the Congressional Research Service (CRS) published a report on March 25, 2025, addressed to Congress, outlining the US Navy’s major uncrewed naval programs for which funding is requested in the fiscal year 2025 defense budget.
The large unmanned surface vessel Ranger was moored at Joint Base Pearl Harbor-Hickam during the 2022 Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise. (Picture source: US DoD)
The report presents three key programs: the Large Unmanned Surface Vehicle (LUSV), the Medium Unmanned Surface Vehicle (MUSV), and the Extra-Large Unmanned Undersea Vehicle (XLUUV), also known as Orca. These systems are intended for deployment in high-risk areas or for long-duration missions where sending crewed ships would be too dangerous, costly, or operationally unjustified. The goal is to reduce reliance on destroyers, cruisers, and nuclear-powered submarines while increasing the number of platforms capable of conducting strike, surveillance, electronic warfare, or mine-laying missions.
The LUSV is designed as a surface vessel between 60 and 90 meters in length, with a displacement ranging from 1,000 to 2,000 tons—roughly the size of a corvette. These autonomous or semi-autonomous ships are expected to carry vertical launch systems (VLS) with 16 to 32 cells for anti-ship and land-attack missiles, making them offensive platforms able to reduce the operational load on existing destroyers and cruisers. Designed to be reconfigurable and long-endurance, LUSVs could operate independently or in support of carrier strike groups. Although designed as uncrewed, these vessels may include a small crew during initial phases to support technology testing and development. The FY2025 budget allocates $54 million to the program, with full-scale production expected to begin in 2027. The first unit is estimated to cost nearly $500 million, followed by two units in 2028 and three more in 2029.
The MUSV, smaller in size, would be under 60 meters in length and displace less than 500 tons. These vessels are intended primarily for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) missions in contested or hard-to-access environments. They are also expected to conduct electronic warfare operations and could operate near enemy coastlines, either independently or alongside manned assets. The US Navy awarded a prototype contract to L3Harris, but no procurement is scheduled before 2029. In June 2024, the Navy issued a call to industry for the rapid conversion of up to seven existing platforms, aiming to expedite deliveries and field-testing. The FY2025 budget allocates $101.8 million for this program, along with an additional $92.9 million for the development of shared technologies supporting both the LUSV and MUSV.
The third program focuses on undersea operations. The Orca (XLUUV) program aims to equip the Navy with large undersea drones capable of laying Hammerhead mines—seabed-deployed systems armed with anti-submarine torpedoes, based on the Cold War-era CAPTOR mine concept. At approximately 26 meters in length, Orca vehicles would be launched directly from port rather than from crewed submarines. In addition to five operationally relevant prototypes ordered from Boeing in 2019, the Navy has acquired a sixth unit for testing purposes. This platform will be used to validate autonomous navigation software and battery reliability—identified as one of the program’s technical challenges. The budget envisions the acquisition of one Orca per year between 2026 and 2029, with unit costs increasing gradually to $120 million. Originally scheduled for delivery in 2022, the first Orca has been delayed to early 2025 due to industrial setbacks. Boeing has since resumed production.
The Orca (XLUUV) program aims to equip the Navy with large undersea drones capable of laying Hammerhead mines—seabed-deployed systems armed with anti-submarine torpedoes, based on the Cold War-era CAPTOR mine concept. (Picture source: Boeing)
These programs are part of the Navy’s broader Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) strategy, which seeks to enable operations in environments where adversaries—including China, Russia, and Iran—possess increasingly sophisticated anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. By deploying a greater number of lower-cost platforms, the Navy aims to maintain operational flexibility and resilience, especially as crewed warships face growing risks of being targeted in future high-intensity conflict scenarios.
However, the CRS report also highlights significant challenges associated with this strategic shift. Concepts of operations (CONOPS) remain partially defined, particularly in terms of integrating these uncrewed systems with existing naval assets. Autonomy technologies are still in development, and software architectures remain fragmented across different contractors. Additional concerns include maintenance costs, cybersecurity risks, and the industrial base’s ability to scale up production. The Orca program has already experienced a 64 percent cost overrun compared to its 2016 baseline. The LUSV program has drawn criticism from some naval officers who consider it overly complex and expensive, diverging from its initial goal of simplicity and mass production.
In conclusion, the large uncrewed systems the US Navy plans to develop from 2025 onward represent a major doctrinal shift, shaped by the anticipation of future high-intensity maritime conflicts involving technologically capable adversaries. Whether operating on the surface or underwater, these systems are expected to extend the Navy’s reach, support more discreet operations, and mitigate risks to personnel in contested zones. Their success will depend on sustained congressional support, the defense industry’s ability to deliver reliable systems, and the Navy’s adaptability in rethinking operational practices. The strategic stakes are significant, as the United States seeks to maintain its maritime advantage in an increasingly unstable global environment.