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Deterrence in Decline: How US Is Rethinking Its Role in the Face of China's Expanding Military Reach.
On April 9, 2025, in Washington, during a hearing before the House Armed Services Committee, two senior U.S. Department of Defense officials voiced strong concerns regarding China’s strategic trajectory, accusing Beijing of undertaking an unprecedented military buildup. John Noh, performing the duties of Assistant Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, stated that the People’s Republic of China is pursuing a deliberate strategy of regional and global dominance aimed at supplanting the United States as the leading military, political, and economic power.
A submarine assigned to a submarine flotilla of the Chinese PLA Navy’s Northern Theater Command sailed toward its designated area during a recent maritime training exercise. (Picture source: Chinese MoD)
This objective has been set at the highest political level, as Chinese President Xi Jinping has directed the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be prepared to invade Taiwan by 2027. This strategic deadline has triggered a wide-ranging acceleration of China’s defense programs. Across the naval, aerial, space, and cyber domains, China is scaling up both technologically and in terms of volume. The PLA Navy now fields over 370 warships, surpassing the U.S. Navy in sheer numbers. This fleet includes more than 40 Type 052D and Type 055 destroyers equipped with vertical launch systems capable of long-range missile strikes. In the air domain, the PLA has modernized its fourth- and fifth-generation fighter fleet, including the J-20 “Mighty Dragon,” which is now serially produced and features AESA radar and enhanced stealth capabilities. On the missile front, China possesses over 1,000 medium- to long-range ballistic missiles, including the DF-17 hypersonic system, designed to bypass conventional missile defense systems. Additionally, China is expanding its military space capabilities, with nearly 80 operational satellites dedicated to navigation, ISR surveillance, communications, and electronic warfare, alongside the development of anti-satellite (ASAT) systems.
In response to this buildup, John Noh emphasized the need for the United States to reestablish a credible deterrence posture in the Indo-Pacific region. This requires a combat-capable military presence, a more balanced distribution of strategic responsibilities with regional allies such as Japan, Australia, South Korea, and the Philippines, and increased investment in the U.S. defense industrial base—particularly in sectors considered critical for multi-domain operations. In January 2024, the Department of Defense published the National Defense Industrial Strategy, outlining key industrial priorities: accelerated production of precision-guided munitions, modernization of hypersonic missile production lines, expanded additive manufacturing capabilities for critical components, and secured supply chains for electronic parts.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), presented a complementary but even more detailed view of the short-term threats. According to him, the Indo-Pacific now faces a series of concurrent challenges, the foremost among them the increasingly assertive behavior of China. In 2024, Chinese military activity around Taiwan surged by 300%, including naval encirclement simulations, large-scale crossings of the Taiwan Strait median line, and near-daily aerial incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). The PLA has deployed full carrier strike groups in these maneuvers, rehearsing amphibious assault scenarios and cruise missile strikes against critical infrastructure.
Admiral Paparo noted that these actions go beyond signaling and should be seen as tactical rehearsals for conflict. However, he added that this coercive strategy could have adverse effects for Beijing by strengthening military cooperation among regional democracies and accelerating Taiwan’s defense modernization. Backed by Washington, the government in Taipei has recently reinforced its air and maritime denial capabilities by acquiring Harpoon missiles, surveillance drones, and commissioning an indigenously developed conventionally powered submarine.
A vehicle-mounted howitzer from an army regiment under the Chinese PLA Xinjiang Military Command fired at mock targets during a live-fire drill on March 28, 2025, aimed at evaluating the troops’ training effectiveness. (Picture source: Chinese MoD)
At the regional level, Paparo highlighted the growing production gap between China and the United States in military capabilities. China is currently launching three warships per month, while the U.S. produces one approximately every three months. Shipyards in Shanghai and Dalian operate at an industrial pace that is challenging to match. In space, Beijing has doubled its number of operational military satellites over the past five years. The development of ASAT capabilities—such as the DN-3 missile—further enhances China’s ability to threaten U.S. orbital infrastructure in a potential conflict.
The admiral also addressed the threat posed by North Korea. Pyongyang is developing miniaturized nuclear warheads and, in 2024, tested a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking the American Midwest. Intelligence sources indicate that Russia is providing increasing logistical and technological support to North Korea in exchange for weapons used in Ukraine. This strategic alignment between Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang creates a complex challenge for the United States and complicates deterrence in the region.
In this context, INDOPACOM conducted 120 joint military exercises in the past year, including 20 of significant scale. Among them, the RIMPAC exercise involved 26 nations, over 40 warships, and 25,000 personnel, testing multinational interoperability. Exercises such as Malabar, with Japan, India, and Australia, and the trilateral Freedom Edge drills focused on anti-submarine warfare and space-based coordination. The Philippines, for its part, expanded bilateral cooperation with the United States by granting access to nine military bases under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA).
Despite the scale and complexity of these challenges, Admiral Paparo stated that U.S. joint forces remain ready, well-trained, and capable of responding. He concluded by reiterating that deterrence remains INDOPACOM’s core responsibility in a strategic environment that is increasingly unstable and polarized.
This congressional testimony reflects a significant strategic shift. The Indo-Pacific is now at the center of U.S. national security priorities—not only as a potential theater of confrontation with China but also as a space for realignment of alliances, defense innovation, and industrial transformation. Confronted with a methodical Chinese expansion, the United States is placing its response on three pillars: credible power, reinforced alliances, and restored industrial sovereignty.